307 FXUS64 KMAF 161120 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 620 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The setup for today is complicated as multiple mesoscale boundaries will be present and interacting at different times as a shortwave trough passes across the northern half of the CWA. An outflow boundary has moved through southeast New Mexico and is slowly moving through the Permian Basin. At the same time, a dryline has tightened up on a line from just east of Carlsbad south towards Pecos and along the Davis Mountain Foothills. Southwest portions of the CWA look to remain dry through today with the main chances for precipitation staying near or just north of the I-10 corridor. A surface low with an associated cold front will push into the area with the front stalling along the Pecos River Valley. South of the cold front and east of the dryline will see favorable environmental conditions for severe storms to develop. Ample instability, steep lapse rates (>7C/km), and bulk shear >40kts will be present and allow storms to become supercellular. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with any storms. Storm or boundary interactions may enhance low level environments and lead to a tornado or two. North of the cold front, large hail will be the main threat with any storms that become severe. However, storm location will be varied and highly dependent on where the aforementioned boundaries setup. Guidance suggests early to mid afternoon development in a scattered nature along the Pecos River Valley. From there, the activity moves to the east over the course of the afternoon and evening. As storms dissipate and move out of the area tonight, temperatures drop below normal into the 50s. Rain chances will be much lower heading into Friday as the shortwave ejects to the east. Isolated storms will be possible over the Davis Mountains during the afternoon. Highs reach into the 80s for most with 90s along the Rio Grande Valley. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A zonal/split jet flow upper pattern will continue through the long term forecast period. Westerly downsloping flow will cause temperatures to rise well above normal with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s everywhere but the higher elevations in the mountains. In fact a few records may be broken Sunday and Monday and heat stress may be an issue given the early timing of the triple digit heat. Relief may arrive Wednesday as most extended models are showing the arrival of a cold front. This may also be the next chance for rainfall though this is not reflected in the PoP forecast at this time. Hennig && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 MVFR CIGs are beginning to move in to HOB/MAF and will hold through part of the morning before beginning to lift. VFR elsewhere. A cold front has shifted winds to the north for all terminals except PEQ/FST. Wind directions will vary and become gusty as nearby convection develops or moves through the area this afternoon. TS not included with issuance as confidence is low on when terminals might be impacted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 80 56 83 60 / 60 50 10 0 Carlsbad 82 57 87 61 / 60 20 10 0 Dryden 97 63 94 64 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 92 58 88 64 / 20 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 54 80 63 / 40 10 10 0 Hobbs 78 54 83 58 / 60 40 10 0 Marfa 84 47 84 53 / 10 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 83 57 84 61 / 40 30 10 0 Odessa 84 58 85 63 / 40 30 10 0 Wink 89 58 89 61 / 40 20 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...93