568 FXUS64 KLZK 161938 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 238 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A trof over the southern Plains, extending into northern Mexico, was advancing eastward and ejecting several minor waves over the southern US. At the surface, the warmest and most humid air was bottled up south of a warm front along the Gulf coast, and a difuse cold front stretched from the Great Lakes region, into southern MO, and down into Texas. The upper trof will continue to push eastward, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight thru tomorrow. The weak cold front will largely wash out, although residual while the warm front to the south never makes it into the state. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the asrea tonight and tomorrow. Moderate levels of instability will also contribute to a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Long term begins with a storm having departed to the east with a brief period of dry weather forecast to start the long term. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region with high temperatures on Sunday forecast to warm about 10 degrees above normal with highs ranging from the mid 80's to lower 90's. This ridge will remain in place through the first half of the week with these above normal temperatures forecast to continue. Conditions will shift late in the day on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the state with the ridge departing to the east. This front will eventually become parallel to the upper level flow aloft...keeping rain chances in the forecast through the end of the long term. Beyond the long term there remains some discrepancies in the models on if the front will remain stalled across Arkansas over several days and bring repeated rounds of rain resulting in a heavy rain event. At this point the ECMWF remains the most optimistic that the front will clear the state. This will need to be watched in the coming days to see how the models evolve. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 77 61 82 / 90 80 50 40 Camden AR 64 81 64 83 / 70 50 40 30 Harrison AR 60 74 59 81 / 60 80 30 20 Hot Springs AR 64 80 63 84 / 60 70 50 20 Little Rock AR 67 82 66 84 / 60 80 50 30 Monticello AR 66 83 66 84 / 80 50 40 40 Mount Ida AR 63 80 61 84 / 60 70 40 20 Mountain Home AR 61 75 60 82 / 60 80 30 30 Newport AR 66 77 63 82 / 80 80 50 40 Pine Bluff AR 66 81 65 83 / 70 70 50 40 Russellville AR 64 80 63 84 / 50 80 40 20 Searcy AR 64 79 62 83 / 80 70 50 40 Stuttgart AR 68 80 66 82 / 80 70 50 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....65