577 FXUS64 KLUB 160527 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1227 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and associated low over the Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This trough is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the upper level trough, perturbations in the flow aloft will help with thunderstorm development over the region this afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough tracks into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow, a better source of lift will eject over the area as the exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet clips the southern portion of the FA. Southerly winds across most of the FA will help influence dewpoints in the 50s and 60s this afternoon with some locations in the far southeastern Texas Panhandle already observing dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. As of 2 PM CDT, the frontal boundary extends along a line from Friona to Happy up to Clarendon. This feature will serve as a source of lift this afternoon for thunderstorms as it tracks southward through the FA this afternoon and evening. Latest model guidance depicts thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundary this afternoon, with some thunderstorms developing across the very weak dry-line across our western most counties. Lack of moisture near the surface and aloft will support high based convection this afternoon given inverted-v profile soundings and DCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, gusty and erratic winds up to 70 mph will be the main hazard with thunderstorms. Although long hodographs have been observed, lack of CAPE will favor more organized multicell clusters with supercell potential limited. Thunderstorms are expected through the overnight hours as the FROPA provides efficient lift for storms to develop. Although the severe threat begins to diminish overnight, localized flooding will remain possible, especially with stronger storms as some training is possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue Thursday as the upper level trough and associated low move over the northern Texas Panhandle. As this feature moves closer into the region, better moisture will be found over the region with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the 50s-60s and PWATs above the 90th percentile. Therefore, main threats with thunderstorms tomorrow will be locally heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding across low-lying and poor drainage areas. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out, especially across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains where the better instability resides. Gusty winds up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size may be possible, especially within larger storm cores. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Rain will continue to shift east of the forecast area early Friday morning as the center of the upper-level low moves into Oklahoma placing us in an area of subsidence aloft. With clearing skies, temperatures will warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday. Upper-level ridging will begin to expand over the forecast area Saturday and remain overhead through early next week. This will lead to increasing temperatures through early next week with high temperatures mostly in the 90s on Saturday and Sunday with upper 90s and lower 100s on Monday. A shortwave will lower heights over the area slightly on Tuesday dropping high temperatures back into the 90s however with limited moisture, it appears that the forecast area will remain dry. /WI && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 TS continue to be generated along and immediately behind a cold front that is moving slowly southward. Another small complex of TS will likely affect KLBB, and possibly KPVW, in the first couple of hours of the TAF period while other scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect areas near KCDS. Forcing for this round of precipitation should diminish later during the early morning hours, but another round of precipitation is expected this afternoon as an upper level low approaches the area from the west. Still looks like a period of MVFR ceilings after sunrise and continuing into early afternoon before what should be some modest improvements. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....58 AVIATION...07