574 FXUS64 KHUN 161743 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 High clouds will rapidly increase late this afternoon into this evening as a lead shortwave impulse moves east through the southern U.S. This impulse will arrive in MS and AL late tonight. The LLJ will feed an MCS across LA into southern MS and AL. Another area of more concentrated precipitation will occur across the Ozarks into the OH valley along an elongated trough/shear zone. So, our area looks to be "in between" heavier precipitation areas. At this point, elevated instability appears it will be limited, so will keep thunderstorm chances amongst the shower chances low tonight. Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A high PoP, lighter QPF scenario seems to be more favored for our portion of the TN valley Friday into Saturday. The wave over TX will slowly eject east along a track further south along the Gulf Coast this model run. This will focus more intense convection Friday night into Saturday to our south, and significantly limit much if any threat of organized strong to severe thunderstorms for our area Friday or Saturday at this point. A rogue strong storm or two can't be ruled out with locally heavier rainfall. The weaker extension of the larger trough position in the OH valley will eventually shift southeast through our area late Saturday into Sunday. Will stick fairly close to suggested blended guidance, but the trend looks more and more like less impactful thunderstorms and rainfall, at least this go around of the model runs. After a cool down into the 70s Friday, temperatures should warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday, and lower to middle 80s Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A system that is expected to bring unsettled weather to close out this week, by Sunday should be moving eastward over the Mid Atlantic. Most of the showers activity should be east of the region in the morning. But heating of residual moisture and resultant instability could bring isolated to scattered (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. This convection should it occur should remain east of the Interstate 65 corridor, and in the afternoon. Otherwise despite weak cold air advection, high temperatures to start the week should warm into the mid 80s. Shower activity should end Sun evening as high pressure building in from the west becomes more of an influence on the sensible weather. Low temperatures should cool into the lower 60s. The start of the workweek/Monday should feature mostly sunny skies, with highs rising into the upper 80s. Similar if not a tad warmer on Tuesday with highs warming to around 90 in few places. Lows Mon/Tue night should range in the mid/upper 60s. Surface high pressure should build east of the Tennessee Valley during Mon/Tue, returning a southerly flow over the area. Another system forming over the northern Great Plains will head towards the Great Lakes. A cold front trailing the parent low over southern Canada will move across the area on Wednesday. Thus have returned shower and thunderstorm chances to the Valley, beginning late Tue night and continuing on Wed. With clouds and rain chances, high temperatures should be in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR flight weather conditions are forecast through most of tonight. High based -SHRA and isolated TSRA will arrive by 09-10Z. The -SHRA will become more widespread by 12-14Z, when ceilings are expected to drop below 010agl (IFR). The probability of TS is below 30%, so have left out of both KHSV and KMSL TAFs at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...17