333 FXUS64 KEPZ 161950 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 150 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances clear out this evening and overnight. Temperatures will warm this weekend and into next week. Afternoon breezes return on Sunday as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon. This is associated with an upper- level low covering roughly the entire state of NM and then some. The primary vort max is centered over northern Otero County, but a notable secondary vort max is showing up clearly on WV imagery toward Tucson. As the primary vort max continues to depart into TX, it will take much of the dynamics/thermodynamics with it. A downward trend is expected for much of the CWA, but with the secondary vort max expected to pivot along the International Border, at least isolated showers will continue through this evening, especially west of the Rio Grande where we have had better daytime heating. Main concerns for now through this evening will be gusty winds and small hail, but again, the overall threat appears to be diminishing. This trough will depart through the morning with ridging expected to replace it throughout the day and into the weekend. Rain chances will completely end by morning while a warming trend commences. The warmest day is expected on Sunday, after the ridge has translated east, and deep west to southwesterly flow is in place. Highs will near 100 in El Paso. Monday will be nearly as warm, but winds are expected to increase ahead of a sharpening upper-level trough. Main concern for Monday will be fire headlines. Tuesday and Wednesday will be breezy as well, but less so than Monday as general troughiness remains in place. Temperatures will not be quite as hot but still above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Active weather is anticipated this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed, especially east of the Continental Divide. These will continue through about 23 or 0z before gradually dissipating. VCTS is mentioned in all but DMN, but amendments will almost certainly be needed. Gusty winds, potentially strong, will be the main concern with any storm along with small hail. Otherwise, SCT-BKN100 skies with winds out of the west to northwest with speeds around 10 knots and gusts to 20 knots are expected, outside of storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 The UL system responsible for today's shower and thunderstorms will depart early tomorrow morning. Drier and warmer air will move in in its wake. Min RH values will drop into the lower and middle teens while winds top out around 10 MPH in the afternoon. It will be warmer and drier for Saturday but as breezy. Winds begin to increase on Sunday and further on Monday. Elevated fire concerns are anticipated on Sunday as winds top out around 15 to 20 MPH, but critical conditions are anticipated on Monday as winds top out 17 to 22 MPH, which will combine with single-digit RH values amidst much above normal heat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 62 91 66 97 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 83 60 90 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 58 90 60 95 / 20 10 0 0 Alamogordo 52 85 56 92 / 20 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 62 45 69 / 20 20 0 0 Truth or Consequences 55 87 60 92 / 30 10 0 0 Silver City 51 80 54 83 / 20 10 0 0 Deming 55 89 56 93 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 54 87 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 88 63 94 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 54 87 54 96 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 90 58 97 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 54 81 59 88 / 20 10 0 0 Fabens 57 90 60 96 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 87 58 93 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 87 66 93 / 20 10 0 0 Jornada Range 53 87 56 93 / 20 10 0 0 Hatch 54 89 56 94 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 59 88 60 93 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 85 58 92 / 20 10 0 0 Mayhill 43 73 50 82 / 10 20 0 0 Mescalero 43 73 48 80 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 42 72 47 79 / 20 20 0 0 Winston 47 80 52 84 / 40 10 0 0 Hillsboro 51 85 56 89 / 20 10 0 0 Spaceport 51 86 54 92 / 20 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 81 48 85 / 30 10 0 0 Hurley 49 84 52 88 / 20 10 0 0 Cliff 51 87 53 91 / 20 0 0 0 Mule Creek 51 83 54 86 / 30 0 0 0 Faywood 52 82 55 87 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 54 87 54 92 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 55 87 55 92 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 86 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 81 55 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown