320 FXUS63 KSGF 161100 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 600 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms likely (60-90% chance) through this morning. Marginal risk for severe storms across southern Missouri this afternoon. Additional rain chances tonight through Friday (60-90% chance). - Total rainfall amounts through Friday range between 0.5 to 2 inches with the highest amounts south of Interstate 44. Localized flooding may occur across the area. - Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week with near record temperatures Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 This Morning: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this morning. This is being supported by shortwave energy sliding through the region in the vicinity of a frontal boundary. Moisture advection into the area with a building low-level jet to the south continues to support efficient rainfall rates around a 0.5-1.0 inch per a hour. An analysis depicts an elevated instability axis into the area, with MUCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg. In general, the environment is rather unimpressive when it comes to supporting severe thunderstorms, though a low (marginal) risk still persists into the area through this morning for isolated activity. The primary risks will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. This morning's batch of showers and thunderstorms is expected to gradually weaken as it moves east towards the Highway 65 corridor. HREF highlights the heaviest rainfall amounts through across southeast Kansas into far southwest Missouri, with a quick 0.5 to 1.5 inches. This may support a localized flooding threat. This Afternoon-Evening: By this afternoon, the remnants of the overnight cluster of activity and embedded MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) translates across the Missouri Ozarks. Guidance has varied of how this feature evolves this afternoon, as subsidence accompanies the dissipation of the morning convection. Nonetheless, the latest hi-res guidance hint at mid- afternoon destabilization across the portions of the area. The main focus for redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be across portions of south central into southeast Missouri. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible in this area, with a SPC Marginal (1/5) Severe Weather Outlook. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up the size of quarters are the primary risks. Additional localized heavy rainfall may accompany this activity through the afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, periods of dry time can be expected this afternoon with isolated showers or a rumble of thunder. Despite the cloud cover and rain chances, highs reach into the middle 70s. Tonight-Friday: By tonight, additional shortwave energy slides south of the region. An associated low-level jet south of the are will support the development of widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma and Arkansas into tonight, with southern Missouri on the northern side of the rain shield into Friday morning. This is reflected with the highest rain chances across portions of southern Missouri. Rain chances gradually decrease to north and west of Interstate 44. Expect this activity to persist through Friday morning into the afternoon, before slowly sliding east of the area in the evening. While there is no severe weather expected on Friday, there continues to be the potential for localized flooding. This is characterized by PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches, supporting efficient rainfall rates. Any areas that see repeat activity track over the same areas in short periods of time may be susceptible to flash flooding. HREF Probability Matched-Mean (PMM) highlights a corridor along the MO/AR border for localized rainfall amounts pushing 1 to 1.5 inches. Highs on Friday top out in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Saturday-Sunday: Ensemble guidance depict rising heights associated with a building ridge over the central CONUS this weekend. This shift in the pattern will support a substantial warm up and drier conditions. On Saturday, highs reach into the lower to middle 80s. Further strengthening of the ridge into Sunday supports 850mb temperatures around 18-22C, correlating to highs soaring into the middle to upper 80s. Rain chances remain limited to 20 percent or less this weekend. Next Monday-Wednesday: The warmest day of the forecast period is expected next Monday as 850mb temperatures reach around 21-23C, supporting widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Confidence is high given the minimal spread in NBM maximum temperatures, with the potential for near record highs (see Climate section below). By Tuesday and Wednesday, the pattern begins to shift with the potential for a more active stretch of weather returning to the region. This is reflected with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous AFD, there is a signal amongst the CIPS analogs and CSU Machine Learning for a pattern that may be conducive for severe weather, though the finer details will be better resolved over the coming days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area this morning. Periods of MVFR flight conditions will occur within this activity, with reduced visibilities to 4 miles and ceilings as low as 2500 feet. A few instances of IFR may occur within in stronger thunderstorms. Expect this activity to slowly dissipate through the mid-morning. There is a low chance for afternoon redevelopment, though confidence is low and not being reflected in the TAFs. Winds at 5 to 10 knots out of south-southwest through the early afternoon, becoming more westerly by late afternoon. Additional rain chances late in the TAF period on Friday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Record High Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 90/1964 KJLN: 92/1956 KUNO: 89/1964 May 21: KSGF: 91/1987 KJLN: 91/1987 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KSGF: 71/1902 May 21: KSGF: 70/1902 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez CLIMATE...Burchfield