311 FXUS63 KPAH 152237 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 537 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances come back tomorrow through Saturday. Some may be strong to severe. - Due to recent rainfalls, more localized flooding may be possible heading into the weekend with additional storms. - Drying out and warming up Sunday into early next week. Highs will push into the mid to upper 80s with muggy conditions. && .UPDATE... Issued at 535 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Shortwave ridging aloft is moving overhead today while yesterday's trof moves off to the east. This is giving us the chance to dry out a little bit today through early tomorrow. Highs today still look to be in the mid to upper 70s. With how wet we are at the sfc and how light the winds look to be tonight, wouldn't be surprised to see some widespread, possibly even dense, fog develop. Tomorrow a northern stream trof aloft moves over the upper Midwest while a southern stream trof slides through the southern Plains. Storm chances come back from west to east starting tomorrow mid morning and really ramp up into Friday. A warm front will organize just north of the area Thursday morning (this has shifted north from previous model runs) which is allowing for MUCAPE values around 1,500-2,000 J/kg. EC/GFS bulk shear is around 25-30 kts but NAM bulk shear is around 40-50 kts and mid level lapse rates are around 6.5 degC/km Thursday evening. SPC has a marginal risk for the area Thursday and this looks warranted. Main threats look to be large hail and damaging winds, though hodographs are showing a little more curvature and elongation than previous runs (particularly Thursday evening) and so a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday the second trof aloft starts moving into the region. The EC keeps this more of an open wave whereas the GFS closes off a low inside the trof. As this feature approaches, more widespread rain is expected Friday into Saturday. From Thursday through Saturday PWATs still look to be around to slightly above average. Therefore in conjunction with recent rains, localized flooding may become an issue and a flood watch may be necessary. WPC has a slight risk over the area for excessive rainfall on Friday. In terms of severe threat, SPC has a marginal risk for the eastern half of the area on Friday. Severe parameters look to be on the weaker side, but are likely underdone in close proximity to the low. Rain is expected to end Saturday evening. In all, QPF amounts from Thursday through Saturday look to be around 1"-2" with locally higher amounts possible. Sunday ridging aloft takes over and helps to dry us out for a couple days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s (pushing 90 in a few places) with dewpoints in the mid 60s to start off the week. Another broad shortwave looks to move through Tuesday into Wednesday and brings back some precip chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 535 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Trof departing east, teleconnected ridging incoming, may lead to BINOVC and potentially SCT bases that in turn could allow for some low clouds/fog to develop overnight. These would carry the requisite MVFR to potentially IFR restrictions, before winds/clouds increase with daylight tmrw...leading to introductory pcpn chances again by the planning hours of tmrw afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$