294 FXUS63 KOAX 312322 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 622 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will linger into tonight. If storms repeat over areas that received heavy rainfall last night, some localized flooding could occur. - Additional storms could move in by late Saturday afternoon/evening (20-40% chance) with daily chances continuing into at least Wednesday. The highest chances for strong to severe storms look to be Sunday and Tuesday. - Slightly warmer through next week with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The stalled frontal boundary remains from south central NE through northwest MO. Numerous showers and thunderstorms have gone up along this boundary. While the storms do not have large hail or gusty winds, they have however produced several funnel clouds, that is coincident with 0-3km CAPE and low level vorticity in the vicinity of the boundary, thus the non supercell tornado is actually peaking with values of 1-2 units. These have typically been weak, short lived, may extend a few hundred feet below the cloud base, and could briefly touch down. And unfortunately, this trend could continue for another hour or two late this afternoon. Elsewhere, there have been spotty, light showers. Will maintain the highest Pops tonight in the axis of the stalled frontal boundary in the 50-80% range, with precipitation gradually diminishing after midnight before ending by daybreak Saturday. Saturday during the day should be very nice with dry weather and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. There is another weak short wave that could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night, with Pops in the 20-30% range. Severe weather probabilities remain to our west Saturday night. Sunday will have 50-60% Pops during the day as weak zonal flow remains aloft. The ECMWF still has pretty robust with precip develop during the day Sunday, but the GFS is pretty dry. And then the GFS GFS has a pretty strong frontal boundary moving into the region Sunday night, which brings the next real threat for severe storms and locally heavy rains moving from west to east. And the next best chance for precipitation after that comes Tuesday. Previous models were perhaps a little slower, and now 12z models are perhaps a little faster, so there remains some uncertainty on the timing of the that weather system and the expected strength. And then Wednesday through Friday is looking pretty dry and pleasant. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A line of slow-moving showers and storms is weakening but continuing east across eastern Nebraska this evening and will move int KLNK and KOMA over the next few hours. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions under heavier showers as the line moves through. Once the rain passes, we'll see VFR conditions return with light and variable winds. Cigs will be lowering overnight tonight with high probability (60-70% chance) of MVFR cigs developing at terminals overnight. KOFK sees higher chances of IFR cigs developing (50-60%) and even a 40-50% chance of LIFR cigs and reduced vis possible between 09-12Z. KOMA and KLNK will more likely be predominantly MVFR overnight with a possibility for cigs to lower to IFR around 10-14Z. Around 14-15Z at all the terminals we should see cigs start to break up with clearing skies through the late morning into the afternoon and VFR conditions returning. Winds will stay light but become predominantly out of the northwest on Saturday. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...McCoy