752 FXUS63 KOAX 160848 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 348 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather prevails through Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. - Increased chances for thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon through next week as a more active and potentially severe pattern appears increasingly likely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Precipitation has ended across the region. There is some patchy fog in southeast NE and southwest IA this morning. The fog is locally dense at a location or two, but not widespread enough for any type of advisory. A very pleasant day is expected with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures eventually reaching the upper 70s with light winds. Overall and outstanding day is in store. More of the same is forecast for Friday as surface winds become southerly and increase over the speeds of today but still maintained within the breezy category at 15 to 25 mph. It will be warmer than today and well above normal with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s. Models do indicate a frontal boundary will move through the region on Saturday. The ECMWF is perhaps a few hours quicker then the GFS. Moisture is pretty meager, thus will keep precipitation out of the forecast. Winds will shift to the northwest through the day at 15 to 25 mph, but it will still be a beautiful day with highs from the upper 70s in northeast NE, to the lower to mid 80s along and south of Interstate 80. We do see a shortwave moving out of Rockies on Sunday, which brings precipitation chances back to the forecast, with Pops increasing to 40-60% through the day Sunday, and 50-80% Sunday night with at least one half to one inch of rain possible. WPC has placed the entire forecast area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. And there will be some potential for a severe storm or two, but still several days away for any certainty. High temperatures Sunday are still warm in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but we'll have to wary of those storms which may dampen the outside enjoyment. A renewed frontal boundary moves into the region Monday, which could provide an additional focus for thunderstorm development. And another subtle shortwave moving out of the Rockies could increase Pops again into the 50-70% range for Monday night. WPC again has the entire forecast area in an marginal risk for excessive rainfall with another one half to one inch of rain possible for some areas. And while the severe weather threat becomes a little more murky by then, it's also not completely zero either. By Tuesday, the main upper trough begins to push into the region, with continued shower/storm chances in the 40-50% range. With the expected increased cloud cover and areas of rain, highs are forecast to range in upper 60s to 70s. Again, that far out, the severe weather threat may be much more diffuse, but certainly not completely gone either. And by Wednesday, really feel that precip chances are finally done, but the NBM blend has about a 20% of what appears to just be climatological noise, but Wednesday looks more dry than wet to me. Highs Wednesday forecast in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 A wind shift has already passed through KOFK and will be making its way to KOMA and KLNK shortly, shifting winds northwesterly while bringing a brief shot of lower clouds around FL040. A few showers have held on but continue to trend downwards in coverage, and should not affect any of the TAF sites this period. Aside form that, northwesterly winds at less than 10 kts will take us into tomorrow evening, when another wind shift occurs around or just after 00z to southerly winds. VFR conditions are expected overall, but we could have a low-end chance (around 20%) of seeing some fog in the KOMA vicinity due to the heavy rain that fell there earlier. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Petersen