129 FXUS63 KMQT 161119 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 719 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather returns to finish the work week with rain showers developing this morning and continuing through the evening. There is a chance for some rumbles of thunder into the afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend and early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 718 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Our stretch of dry weather comes to an end today with a couple of rounds of light rain showers developing across the area as a shortwave trough and associated surface low slowly move from MN into Ontario. The first batch of rain showers are already moving into the western UP, and will continue their eastward trek through the rest of the morning. Showers may become more spotty into the afternoon while the low tracks into the Arrowhead of MN, struggling to move more eastward of M-95 with weak dynamical support and dry air in place. However, as the weak cool front sweeps through this evening, and the nocturnal LLJ becomes directed over the eastern UP, scattered showers will become more likely across the eastern UP. A few hundred j/kg of CAPE over the area indicates a potential for some rumbles of thunder, but confidence is low with soundings not exactly looking favorable. Rain showers pull out of hte area late tonight, and skies may clear partially across the western UP. Otherwise, expect temperatures to climb into the 60s across most of the area today, while southeast wind gusts increase to around 15mph for hte afternoon, higher in the Keweenaw. Dewpoints will have a chance to mix out once again at least across the eastern UP, with RH there dropping to around 30-35%. Given increasing wind speeds, today remains worth monitoring for the fire spread potential. Expect lows ranging in the 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 As the low pressure lifts away into northern Ontario Friday, dry conditions are expected to return to Upper Michigan until Saturday afternoon/evening, when a cold front brings additional light rainfall to the area. That being said, expect summer-like conditions this weekend into early next week as high temperatures soar into the 70s and 80s in the interior areas. Rainfall looks to return early next week and looks to continue on and off until near the end of the extended period. Additional forecast details follow below. The last of the rain showers lifts away from the far east Friday morning as the parent low continues into northern Ontario. As this occurs, warm air advection begins to move in from the southwest with time. With the clouds clearing out across the land throughout the daylight hours, we could see some steep lapse rates develop in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, causing high temperatures to soar into the 70s across the interior areas and the 60s along the Great Lakes. In addition, the strong lapse rates may be enough to create some pop-up showers across the interior west late in the afternoon, as seen in some of the CAMs. However, I have my doubts on the shower occurrence Friday afternoon as most of the atmospheric profile is looking dry, particularly from the surface to the boundary layer as an inverted-v around 5 kft high takes shape (according to CAMs soundings). While a secondary shortwave over northern Minnesota looks to bring rainfall near the Duluth area Friday afternoon and evening, the moisture needed to sustain any real convection over the west is too far away to be of any help. Therefore, I've limited rainfall chances over the west to 10% or less Friday afternoon. As weak ridging rides through the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday, expect dry conditions over the U.P. Friday into Saturday morning at the very least. While mostly clear skies will allow radiative cooling across the area, with warm air advection continuing across the area, temperatures may have a harder time tanking than if the warm air advection wasn't occurring. Nevertheless, I've lowered the temperatures a few degrees using a blend of the NBM10th and NBM, keeping the lows in the low 50s to upper 40s in the west and mid 40s in the east. Moving into Saturday, the dry conditions continue through to the early afternoon hours. As southerly winds pick up, expect the downslope areas near Lake Superior to get unseasonably warm; thinking that areas along the Lake Superior shoreline could get into the 80s for a high, with many areas in the interior west possibly getting into the mid 80s; this, combined with the antecedent dry conditions and sunny skies could bring some limited elevated fire weather concerns back across the area Saturday afternoon, particularly along the downslope areas near Lake Superior. With winds coming off of Lake Michigan, the coolest (and most moist) area looks to be along its lakeshore from Escanaba all the way east of Manistique to even the Bridge; expect highs to only get into the upper 60s in this area. Once we hit the mid to late afternoon, rain showers and possibly (30% chance) a few embedded thunderstorms begin to make their way into the western U.P.. However, with the daylight ending and the parent shortwave low causing the convection moving towards Hudson Bay, shower activity diminishes, with thunder chances looking to altogether vanish by late in the night as the cold front continues across the rest of the U.P. from west to east. More weak high pressure ridging looks to cross the Upper Great Lakes Sunday as warm air advection once again returns to the area thanks to a troughing pattern moving from the western U.S. into the central U.S.. Thus, expect a pretty similar setup to what we see Saturday, albeit temperatures inland might be a couple of degrees lower and the lakeshores noticeably cooler as the surface flow will probably be weak enough to allow the lake breezes to get going. We may see another limited elevated fire weather day in the interior west Sunday as min RHs could drop into the mid 20 percents. Precipitation returns late Sunday night/Monday as the first of multiple shortwaves moves into our area. Multiple shortwaves encroach on our neck of the woods early next week as the troughing pattern moving from the central U.S. eastwards keeps sending shortwaves from the Southern Plains up our way. This will allow us to receive multiple shots of rainfall throughout the latter portion of the extended period; we could see a soaking rainfall from one of the shortwaves should "the cards fall right" so to speak. However, given the high uncertainty of the forecast, the probability of this happening is rather low at this time. As the troughing pattern slowly trudges eastward, expect the temperatures from Monday through next Thursday to progressively lower each day, being above normal on Monday to below normal by Thursday. Once the trough moves through, high pressure ridging moves back over us late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 718 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Light rain showers moving into the western UP this morning will continue to spread eastward through hte morning and afternoon. VFR conditions lower to MVFR at IWD by mid-morning, then CMX and SAW will follow and become MVFR later this afternoon. Will carry a few hours of IFR at IWD during the afternoon as showers pull out, but that is low confidence. MVFR restrictions linger into the night at all terminals, but IWD may begin to scatter out after 06Z. Meanwhile, east-northeasterly winds will shift to the southeast, but will remain under the 12 kt threshold. And, IWD will see a shift to southwesterly overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Light winds of generally 20 knots or less continue today through this weekend into early next week as a cold front brings some showers and maybe (15% chance) an embedded thunderstorm or two this evening through tonight. Thunder chances return Friday night over the far western lake near Duluth as a low lifts through northern Minnesota. As the cold front of the low moves eastward Saturday and Saturday night, expect the shower and thunderstorm chances to travel east with it, with the chances decreasing with time after the sun sets. Thunder and shower chances return Monday as the first of multiple shortwave lows move across the Upper Great Lakes region. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...LC MARINE...TAP