758 FXUS63 KMKX 311946 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wind gusts up to 50 MPH are expected through the early evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Green county up to Green Lake and east. Gusts to 40 MPH are expected west of there. - High pressure builds into the area late tonight into Friday, delivering seasonable temperatures and quieter weather conditions. - More active period of weather expected from Saturday night through Tuesday with some drought busting rain potential. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Tonight through Saturday: The low pressure located over northern WI into northern Lake Michigan will continue to gradually lift northeast. With the exiting low the 850mb LLJ will continue to be strong upwards of 60 knots. Mild mixing is all that will be needed with 40knot winds just off the deck at around 900mb. This will likely continue to occur into the mid evening hours before ramping down especially as the LLJ pushes out of the region. Expected surface wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph with gusts as high as 50mph. The Wind Advisory has been extended to include Green, Green Lake, Dane and Columbia counties in addition to the counties to the east until 10pm tonight. The upper level shortwave associated with the surface system will gradually push out of the region but as it does we could see some showers on the backend of the system associated with the TROWAL toward central WI though most of southern WI will remain dry the rest of the night. As the low slides out strengthening high pressure will push in behind it Friday with mostly zonal flow in the upper levels. High pressure with near zonal flow will stick around through Saturday before the high begins pushing out ahead of an upper level shortwave starting to push in. High pressure and light winds largely expected Friday and Saturday. Much cooler temperatures behind the front Friday but will warm back into the upper 50s for Saturday. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Saturday night through Thursday: Ensembles and deterministic models are showing several rounds of rain and some thunderstorms affecting the area later Saturday night into Tuesday. Focused warm air and moisture advection push into the area Saturday night and continues Sunday, with the surface warm front pushing northward into and through the area by Sunday night. This period should see the first round of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. The instability is pretty weak with moist adiabatic lapse rates on forecast soundings. Winds then shift southward in the warm sector airmass later Sunday night into Monday, lingering into Tuesday ahead of the main cold front. Continued warm/moist advection should continue to bring rounds of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. Instability again looks weak with the moist adiabatic lapse rates. The cold front should cross the area sometime Tuesday, with winds shifting to the west and drying things out Tuesday night. It is too early to say if there will be any stronger storms ahead of the front on Tuesday, perhaps in a high shear/low CAPE environment. Ensembles and the NBM suggest a solid 2.00 to 3.50 inches of rainfall across the area from later Saturday night into Tuesday, with some members showing higher amounts. A lot will depend on how much training occurs with these rounds of rain and some storms. So, heavy rainfall is possible during this period, but it is too early to say if any flooding will be an issue, given that we will have a couple of dry days to absorb the rain that occurred into this morning. Certainly welcome and beneficial rainfall that may put a good dent into the current drought conditions over the area. Temperatures will warm above seasonal normals by Monday into Tuesday with the warm and moist advection, with ensembles and the NBM pushing into the 60s for highs each day. Gusty south winds may occur during this time as well. Temperatures look to drop to more seasonal normal values later in the week, as high pressure moves to the south of the region. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Gusty southwest to west winds through the mid evening with wind gusts consistently around 30-40 knots across southern WI with higher gusts closer toward the lake. In addition CIGS will largely be MVFR through this evening though southeast WI may see VFR CIGS linger through much of the period though this remains uncertain. Some IFR CIGS could be expected for parts of central WI. Overnight BKN/OVC MVFR/IFR CIGS will push out with clearing skies into Friday morning and a return to VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. No real VSBY concerns. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 245 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Low pressure will move northeastward over the northern half of Lake Michigan by this evening. Gales to roughly 40 knots are expected through the early evening with winds falling below gales later tonight. Wind direction will veer from southwest to northwest into the evening hours. A Gale Warning in the open waters remains in effect through 6z tonight but through 5z for the nearshore with a period of Small Craft conditions after the Gale Warning. Waves to 12 feet are expected. High pressure will build into the region late tonight into Friday. Northwest winds weaken Friday morning, becoming light and variable by Friday evening. By Saturday night we will see the high pressure push out with low pressure developing in the west. This will bring precip potential across the lake through Tuesday with some concerns for gales from Sunday through Tuesday. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059- WIZ060-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070- WIZ071-WIZ072 until 10 PM Thursday. LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563- LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Friday. Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until midnight Friday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee