680 FXUS63 KLBF 160516 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1216 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Scattered showers and storms rest of this afternoon to evening. -Quiet and dry Thursday and much of Friday -Active weather returns with periods of showers and storms this weekend into early next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Lingering scattered rain showers continue this afternoon, as seen by radar returns over portions of northern and eastern Nebraska. Further surface analysis shows a cold front over eastern Nebraska tied to a weak area of low pressure currently centered in eastern South Dakota. Will see increasing chances for showers and storms as a weak wave with the departing system passes across Nebraska this afternoon into the early evening. Model soundings depict MLCAPE values around 1500J/kg with effective shear values around 30 knots and somewhat steep lapse rates paired with dry low levels. Overall not expecting severe weather with this activity, though gusty winds and periods of heavier showers with any storms are possible, though some small hail cannot be ruled out. Little in the way of additional rainfall is expected, with models generally agreeing on values less than 0.25-0.50 inches, highest further east. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to top out in the 60s to low 70s, along with slightly breezy northwest winds. Clearing skies are expected into the evening with winds turning light and temperatures dropping into the 40s over the region. Looking at a period of dry and pleasant weather Thursday as a small ridge axis pushes across the region in between systems. Mostly sunny skies Thursday with light westerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures as highs are expected through the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 As the aforementioned ridge departs Friday, low level flow will increase and turn more southwesterly, with warm air advection surging into the state ahead of a large area of deepening surface low pressure system tracking eastward across the far northwestern CONUS Friday. This will result in temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 80s into the afternoon. As the negatively tilted upper level trough associated with the previously mentioned surface low pivots across the Dakotas into eastern Wyoming late Friday and into Saturday, a weak wave moving into the state looks to bring the chance for showers and storms. With much better forcing for convection further north however, the potential for much activity within the CWA is looking low end (<20% chance per most recent model guidance). Overall not expecting severe weather with any activity that may occur, but will continue to keep an eye on this potential over the next few days. Cold air advection pushes into the state following the departing system, with high pressure following which will allow for dry and quiet conditions for the remainder of Saturday. Highs will be cooler as a result with values in the 70s. Active weather is expected to increase by Sunday through early next week as a large upper level low pressure system circulating over southern Canada eventually phases with another trough lifting out of the Desert Southwest by Tuesday. This will result in several waves of showers and storms to push through the Central Plains, which per model guidance looks to at least come with a better chance for at least some periods stronger storms and more appreciable rainfall. Too far out to get specific on the details however, so will be watching closely. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours. Only few250 expected overnight through Thursday evening. Winds will remain light westerly Thursday, then becoming light south Thursday evening. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bury LONG TERM...Bury AVIATION...Roberg