656 FXUS63 KJKL 160916 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 516 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a lull in shower and thunderstorm chances for most places today and tonight, higher chances return to close out the week and carry over into Saturday. - Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected to return today and then continue into the weekend. A further warm up is then expected into the first part of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 505 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows low pressure pulling out of the area to the east as high pressure starts to work in from the west. This has cleared out the higher clouds but left plenty of moisture behind through eastern Kentucky. This has encouraged a low stratus deck to form over most of the JKL CWA along with areas of fog - locally dense. So far, the stratus has dominated these early morning hours, though the dense fog could still expand into dawn. Otherwise, amid light winds, temperatures and dewpoints are mainly in the lower 60s with RH near 100 percent. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict weak and brief ridging moving over Kentucky today. This rise in 5h heights will be short-lived, though, as southwest mid level flow arrives tonight with energy streaming overhead from an open wave over the Southern Plains. The largest concentration of this energy moves into the area Friday afternoon. The model spread is small enough that the NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids along with the incorporation of the CAMs' details for PoPs and timing through Friday. Sensible weather features a foggy and cloudy start to the day, but these will clear out before noon with some sunshine and warmer temperatures returning. A stray shower or storm will be possible in the far eastern parts of the forecast area later this afternoon - while most places stay dry. In addition, low pressure and a wavy frontal boundary will start to impinge on northwest parts of the eastern Kentucky with a renewed chance for showers, or a storm, this evening and overnight. Even so, there will likely be enough thinning of the clouds and clear patches during the night for a small ridge to valley split to develop in the east along with another night of fog development - thickest in the valleys. More showers and storms arrive on Friday as a southern area of low pressure extends its pcpn shield up into Kentucky with high PoPs and some moderate QPF on tap for our area. Accordingly, WPC has places the area in a marginal risk of flooding Friday and Friday night while SPC has a marginal threat of severe storms in the far southwest portion of the Cumberland Valley. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point again consisted of tweaking the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and thunder chances through Friday. The temperatures and dewpoints from the NBM were not adjusted much considering the still high levels of RH through much of the period - though did allow for a touch of terrain distinction, for a time, tonight in the east. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 515 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024 Friday night and Saturday will see likely precip as a warm front lifts northward into the region and then a low pressure system passes over. A deep shortwave system will then settle across the state on Saturday as well. While thunderstorms will be possible, especially during the afternoon/evening hours, this doesn't look to be a potent system. SPC has a marginal risk area for severe storms through 12Z Saturday, then it turns into general thunder. Meanwhile, we could see some decent rainfall out of this system at times, so SPC does include a marginal risk across us as well. The being said, expect the better instability and heavies rainfall to be outside of the JKL CWA. While the surface system should exit to our east by Sunday, it does appear that the upper level trough will remain across much of eastern Kentucky through the day Sunday. This, in addition to surface northerly flow, could keep precip across the region, especially in the higher terrain throughout the day. Monday may be our one dry day, at least mostly. The upper level shortwave will have exited the state between 12 and 18Z (depending on the model), and surface high pressure will combine with upper level ridging. That being said, the GFS does try to show some afternoon instability and very isolated showers/storms in the southern CWA, which made it into the NBM. This ridging and high pressure will remain in place through Tuesday morning. Deep troughing across the central U.S. will continue to push eastward, with heights lowering Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A surface frontal boundary encompassing much of the central U.S. will also push eastward and towards the Commonwealth. Precip will develop ahead of this approaching front, resulting in increasing clouds and pops by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Pops will reach their height during the day Wednesday as the front passes over. As far as models are concerned, they are in MUCH better agreement compared to 24 hours ago. Temperatures should start the period on Saturday at seasonal normals - in the mid 70s. From this point forward they should begin to slowly trend upwards through the first part of next week, peaking in the mid and upper 80s by Tuesday. This will be thanks to increase SW flow ahead of the next incoming system. Temps will remain the low and mid 80s on Wednesday despite increased precip, with the cold front finally passing through late in the day. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2024 Light winds and some breaks in the higher clouds have set the stage for fog down to MVFR and IFR at a few sites, on their way to LIFR or even lower by dawn. All the TAF sites would likely be affected by this in accordance with climo and LAMP guidance. Between 13Z and 15Z, the fog and low stratus will gradually begin to lift and dissipate, with most areas likely to experience VFR by 15Z and once conditions improve to VFR in a location they will persist to end the period. Winds will be light and variable through the this aviation cycle. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...JP/GREIF