140 
FXUS63 KGLD 161959
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather with rising temperatures today through
  Saturday.

- A low pressure system anticipated to develop in the lee of 
  the Rockies late this weekend may bring severe weather to 
  portions of the Central Plains on Sunday May 19.

- Unsettled pattern with daily potential for showers/storms
  expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Overview: Both the northern and southern stream branches of the
upper level jet will be well-removed from the Tri-State area in
this period.. as an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest
extends northeastward over the Central Plains.

Expect benign weather and a warming trend, with well-above 
average temperatures on Friday.. when highs may approach 90F
over much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Active weather is anticipated from the latter half of the 
upcoming weekend through much of next week.. as cyclonic flow 
/troughing/ aloft becomes established over the western CONUS. 
Guidance indicates a rather complicated flow pattern 
characterized by varying degrees of interaction/phasing between 
two distinct (northern and southern stream) branches of the 
upper level jet. In such a pattern, confidence in forecast 
specifics is well below average. Broadly speaking, one would 
expect an increased potential for convection.. and episodic 
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... 
Issued at 155 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Mostly clear skies /VFR conditions/ will rule through the TAF 
period at both terminals. Light and variable winds will prevail 
today. Winds will shift to the S-SSW at 10-15 knots overnight.. 
veering to the SW-WSW at 15-20 knots late Friday morning into 
Friday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Vincent