899 FXUS63 KGID 161742 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1242 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today looking to be a pretty pleasant day across the area. Should see more sun, winds remain on the light side, and highs are in the mid-upper 70s. - Dry conditions remain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, with Friday forecast to be the overall warmest day with widespread low-mid 80s. A frontal boundary passing through Saturday morning may keep northwestern areas in the mid 70s for highs. - A more active upper level pattern returns for Sunday on through the middle of the week, with periodic thunderstorm chances across the region. Still plenty of uncertainties to iron out in the coming days, but will be keeping an eye on the potential for strong/severe storms Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Currently... Had some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms make their way southeast through the forecast area Wed afternoon into part of the overnight hours...but activity has tapered off and conditions are quiet early this morning. Upper air and satellite data show generally westerly flow in place early this morning, with a trough axis sliding out of the Dakotas and into MN...elsewhere across the CONUS, upper level disturbances are also located over the Desert SW and central portions of the East Coast, while high pressure sits off the West Coast. Sky cover ranges from mostly clear across the northwest, to overcast in the southeast, driven by showers/storms still ongoing over southeastern KS. At the surface, the forecast area sits between a frontal boundary extending from MN southward into the Southern Plains and weak high pressure over the central High Plains. Winds overnight have been north-northwesterly but light...current winds for many spots are becoming more variable in direction. Today through Saturday... Looking at a pretty pleasant day across the area today, the forecast remaining dry with upper level flow turning more northwesterly with time in the wake of the departing trough axis to our north. Expecting mostly clear to partly cloudy skies...with overall light winds. That area of weaker high pressure over the central High Plains is expected to sink southeast through the day, dragging a ridge axis through the forecast area. Speeds through the day remain light, with winds turning more westerly, then southerly by early evening. No notable changes were made to forecast highs, which look to be fairly uniform in the mid-upper 70s. Overall little change in the forecast as we get into Friday and Saturday, which remains dry. Models continue to show the upper level pattern turning more zonal in nature, as a broad shortwave ridge axis get pushed east through the Plains by a low pressure system and southward digging through moving through western Canada/Pac NW. The southerly building in later today/this evening continues on into Friday, and there will be the potential for gusty winds, especially across the northern half of the forecast area or so...as the surface pressure gradient increases as low pressure approaches from the west. Speeds of 15-25 MPH and gusts of 25-30 MPH will be possible. Friday is currently forecast to be the overall warmest day of the 7- day period, with a warmer airmass building into the area, allowing for highs to climb into the low-mid 80s across the entire forecast area. Into Saturday, that upper level system to our north pushes east into central Canada, with it and accompanying trough axis pushing a surface cool front south through the forecast area. Current timing among models is in generally good agreement showing this front getting through all but the southeast corner of the area by 18Z. Breezy north- northwest winds expected to accompany this front...with slightly cooler air dropping highs back into the mid- upper 70s across the northwestern half or so of the forecast area. Sunday on through mid-week... Starting late Saturday night and continuing on into the middle of the work week, models showing the upper level pattern turning active, southwesterly as a series of disturbances keep the western CONUS under the influence of troughing. Still plenty of details to iron out in the next few days with timing/track of the periodic disturbances, but Sunday/Sunday night and again Monday/Monday look to be the next chances for strong/severe storm potential to work its way back into the area. Because of the differences between models that just increase the further out you go, confidence in any chances further into the middle of the week is low. Highs for Sunday and Monday remain in the 70s/80s, with potential for cooler 60s/70s for Tuesday before rebounding back into the 70s area-wide for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 High probability (95%+) of VFR conditions through this TAF period. FEW/SCT cumulus expected this afternoon, and FEW/SCT high clouds move through the area tonight. Winds turn to the south/southwest tonight into Friday morning. Gusts to around 20kts are likely by midday Friday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Mangels