326 FXUS63 KFSD 161130 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 630 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures will end the week. Moderate to high confidence (70-80%) in widespread highs in the 80s on Friday. Lower confidence (30-40%) in highs for Saturday, depending on timing of cold front. - A more active southern stream jet is expected next week which could bring a better chances for increased shower and thunderstorm coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Quiet conditions continue to prevail in the wake of FROPA, with latest observations showing light winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Should see quiet conditions continue today, as sfc high pressure builds south of our area. As a result, expect winds to remain light out of the west/northwest, with afternoon highs rising into the 70s. May even see a few locations along and west of the James River take a shot at 80 degrees. Even warmer temperatures are forecast to prevail Friday as breezy southerly winds enhance WAA across the region. Thus, look for highs to soar into the 80s as gusts range between 20 to 25 MPH. Lows during this time will also remain quite mild, as temperatures only fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Stacked low over Canada advances eastward Saturday, as it's associated sfc cold front slides across the Northern Plains. While most of our area is expected to stay dry, can't rule out the possibility of seeing a few light showers along and north of Highway 14 prior to daybreak Saturday. In regard to temperatures, still expect highs to rise into the 70s to perhaps the lower 80s on the far eastern fringes of our CWA. That being said, temperatures will largely depend on the timing of FROPA - so additional adjustments may still be needed. Otherwise, expect breezy winds to continue, with northwesterly gusts between 25 to 35 MPH possible. SUNDAY: As alluded to in the previous discussion, expect more organized chances for showers and storms to return Sunday, as a shortwave over the Rockies ejects northeastward toward the region. Could see development as early as daybreak, through the better chances look to occur during the afternoon/evening. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Unsettled weather looks to continue heading into the new week as an upper level trough deepens across the western CONUS. As this features advances eastward, will see a series of shortwaves impact the region, causing periodic chances for showers and storms to persist. Ensembles also continue to indicate a 30-70% chance of seeing rainfall greater than or equal to half an inch on Monday. Otherwise, expect much of the same Tuesday, with conditions trending drier by Wednesday. Highs during this time look to remain in the 60s to 70s, with lows generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Latest satellite imagery reveals some patchy fog across the region, resulting in IFR/MVFR cigs/vsbys. Should this burn off in the next few hours, with VFR conditions forecast to prevail for the remainder of the period. Winds today look to remain out of the west/northwest before turning light and variable near sunset. Direction then become more southeasterly near midnight. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...SST