948 FXUS63 KFGF 161129 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 629 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is being observed across portions of the area this morning, primarily around the Devils Lake area. - Impacts possible Friday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern, but hail up to 1 inch in diameter cannot be ruled out. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Today into tonight: Patchy morning fog will remain possible through around mid morning where we see the best clearing. Thus far, this has been limited to the Devils Lake Basin and a few areas along the International Border. Look for at least partial clearing through much of the day across the area as we will be between two upper lows. The resultant shortwave ridge will allow temperatures to recover well into the 70s today west of the Red River, and mid to upper 60s to the east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon, mainly west of the Red River. Friday morning thorugh midday: Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Friday as another shortwave moves across the area. Several short range ensemble members develop a weak, pre-frontal trough early Friday morning, which will bring a slight chance for scattered showers during the pre dawn hours. This is expected to clear after sunrise, with a strong rebound in temperatures expected through early afternoon. Highs are expected to reach well into the 80s, with a 90 degree reading or two possible for portions of the far southern Red River Valley. This will be in response to a retreating shortwave trough and the resultant WAA ahead of our next upper low. Impacts possible Friday Afternoon: Looking into the afternoon and evening hours, instability increases, with CAPE values climbing into the range of 1200 to 2000 J/Kg. Soundings favor the potential for relatively strong updrafts with multicell clusters or perhaps hybrid supercells, followed by potentially rapid upscale growth. With dew points in the 50s to near 60 degrees and temperatures in the 80s, this leaves us with an inverted V sounding, and resultant DCAPE values of 1000 J/kg or higher, thus damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with any of the stronger updrafts that form. Hail is possible, but will have a somewhat narrow window during the mid afternoon. Forcing will occur along a strong theta-e gradient boundary and the associated cold front to follow. Low to mid level shear in the 0-3 km layer will be in the range of 15 to 30 knots, with an favorable orientation for a mention of possible QLCS formation. For the weekend and into next week: Much cooler temperatures are expected in a post frontal environment. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible through around midday Saturday as zonal flow takes over across the Northern Plains. This will be relatively short lived in this progressive setup, and another shortwave is expected to impact the region starting Sunday afternoon. Early indications show another chance for showers and thunderstorms, with a few stronger storms not out of the question. Progressive flow brings several more shortwaves across the area Monday through Wednesday, with a large degree of temporal and spatial variation at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Patchy fog is being observed this morning across the area, with KDVL expected to have visibility restrictions to 1/4 mile through around 14Z. At KBJI, light shower activity is moving to the east this morning, and should clear the area by 15Z. Elsewhere, IFR to MVFR ceilings this morning will slowly improve by around midday, with VFR ceilings expected this afternoon. Prevailing winds are expected to remain below 10 knots through the period, with little in the way of gust potential. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch