613 
FXUS63 KEAX 161741
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1241 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers expected through the morning south of
  HWY-36. No severe weather expected at this time.

- Isolated showers and storms possible Thursday afternoon for
  areas primarily south of I-70.

- Nice weather expected for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

There is a surface low currently residing in MN with a weak surface 
boundary extending down into western MO. This boundary has provided 
enough lift resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms that 
are currently moving in from eastern KS. These storms are expected 
to move to the east of our area later this morning/early afternoon. 
No severe weather is expected with these storms.

Friday morning, a trough moves in from the southwest of our area. 
Additional rounds of showers are expected mainly south of I-70. Due 
to weak shear and CAPE values, no severe weather is expected at this 
time. Saturday, mid-level ridging will build into the area resulting 
in dry conditions. A nice weekend is expected with high temperatures 
in the low to mid 80s. Sunday night into Monday morning, a surface 
low pushes to the northwest of the area over South Dakota. As a 
result, our winds shift to the south and begin advecting warm, moist 
air from the Gulf slowly increasing instability. An embedded 
shortwave also moves through the area which could lead to some 
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in eastern KS/western 
MO. Storms are anticipated to move eastward through early Monday 
morning. Stronger instability and increased moisture are expected to 
the southwest of our area, which suggests the higher potential of 
severe weather south of the CWA.

For Monday, another mid-level trough pushes through the area from 
the west. At the lower levels, a surface low moves in from the 
southwest. The associated cold front is expected to pass through 
Monday night into Tuesday. Winds shift to the south out ahead 
leading to increased instability for our region. There is a 
potential for some strong to severe storms with the passage of the 
frontal boundary. The next chance for precipitation will be 
Tuesday afternoon as another trough moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Scattered rainfall will gradually clear the TAF sites within the
next few hours as a front moves through the area. Expect
ceilings to gradually improve from MVFR to VFR this afternoon
with winds turning back to the north.  

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...HB