852 FXUS63 KDVN 160516 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1216 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...06Z AVIATION UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few storms late tonight and Thursday. - Highs warming into the 80s for several days ahead. - Depending on where a developing storm track lays out, it could be a potentially wet pattern across the region next week with several rounds of heavy rain possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Tonight...Smoke layer in the north seems to be thinning and starting to get flushed back northward with return flow aloft. Late tonight and tomorrow's weather maker short wave showing up nicely on water vapor imagery acrs the central plains into the eastern Dakotas. This system will approach later tonight but initially be battling dry air and associated leeside WAA type precip may erode or stay aloft as it tries to move in this evening and even portions of the overnight. But eventually some spotty or sctrd light showers/sprinkles and even an isolated thunderstorm should make into portions of the area if not to a little before dawn, especially west of the MS RVR. Temps falling into the 50s for lows overnight under shallow inversion, but increasing southeasterly to south return flow may make for pre-dawn non-diurnal trends especially west. Thursday...The incoming short wave with southwesterly 20 KT moisture feed vectors aloft ushering in 1.2 to 1.4 inch PWATs will make do to column saturation with showers and a little bit of embedded thunder blossoming and becoming a bit more widespread, but that may occur more acrs the east or along and east of the local DVN fcst area during the morning, depending on wave propagation speed. Also of interest, if there is not that much substantial morning activity and related debris, diurnal heating may set the stage for sctrd thunderstorms developing along the front more Thu afternoon into early evening in a narrow SBCAPE ribbon. In this scenario, storm layer shear of 30-40 KTs and 1000+ MUCAPEs may support some stronger storm cells along the front capable of marginally severe hail and wind gusts, especially north of I80 acrs far eastern IA into northwestern IL. But a better, more organized area for strong storms looks to be more acrs southeastern WI in LLVL backed wind field near the main warm front. Will have varying amounts of POPs through the day. High temps in the low to mid 70s, with some areas pushing the upper 70s away from the clouds/precip. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Friday...A day of somewhat discrepancy, but the majority of ensemble blends suggest that this day may be mainly dry or a few light showers skirt acrs the far southeastern CWA. Will adjust any POPs that way and ignore the outlier GFS which slow rolls a southern stream cut-off upper low far enough north for occasional rains acrs much of the area Friday into Saturday. Away from the rains and thicker cloud cover, thermal profiles support highs in the upper 70s or even around 80. Saturday and Sunday...Medium range model synoptic scale pattern trends still point to a building thermal ridge out west, with a ridge-riding vigorous shortwave digging down into the northwestern GRT LKS by Sat evening. Currently indicated pre-system warm draw supports highs in the mid 80s(50-75 percentile). Associated sfc front squeezing into the area from the west-northwest may provide forcing focus for shower and thunderstorm development late Sat afternoon and evening, but the feature will be battling a EML and if anything goes, it may be spotty and elevated in nature. In the wake of the passing front, Sunday looks fair and warm(upper 70s-low 80s). Medium range ensembles then continue to lay out lower amplitude thermal ridge and northern fringe storm track somewhere acrs the midwest or upper midwest. Where this storm highway and possible quasi-stationary west-to-east sfc front aligns will be a big implication to what areas will be suspect to occasional storm cluster or MCS development and propagation. A few ensemble solutions such as the ECMWF start with the track developing overhead and an MCS as early as Sunday night into Monday morning. Sunday night will probably be a start of the need for POP chances almost every period into the mid week. Monday through next Wednesday...Building upon thoughts in the previous paragraph, a thermal ridge containing Gulf fed rich THTA-E air and it's northern fringe will be the focus for occasional storm cluster or MCS development(most likely at night thanks to convergent LLJ feeds) and then propagation paths overnight and into the following day this period. But still uncertainty on how far north or south this storm track lays out is still there, plus the fact that one storm complex and resulting debris lay out will affect the set-up for the next day, something the models don't handle well especially that far out. Thus plentiful POPs will have to ride early to mid week, despite that there will also be plenty of dry hours in between. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A VFR night with light south winds is in store for the area as weak high pressure moves overhead. Early Thursday morning, a weak shortwave trough aloft and attendant surface front will be moving slowly through the area from west to east, and may be accompanied by MVFR ceilings and chances (~30%) of rain showers and storms. Confidence on exact timing of activity and ceilings is low as latest deterministic guidance is not in agreement on development, so have maintained the previous PROB30 groups. As the front passes, winds will shift to the northwest, but will remain around or below 10 kts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Changes: None Discussion: River flood warnings continue for the lower Wapsipinicon River near De Witt and for a portion of the Mississippi River from Gladstone, IL through Burlington, IA. The lower Wapsipinicon River near De Witt is just coming off a broad crest. The forecast has it dropping below flood stage Thursday afternoon. For the Mississippi...the river continues to rise from New Boston, IL through Gregory Landing, MO. With the exception of Gladstone and Burlington, the river is forecast to crest below flood stage. At Gladstone and Burlington, the river will crest just above flood stage Thursday night. The lower Cedar River near Conesville is nearing a crest just below flood stage. The river will hold just below flood stage through tonight before beginning a slow fall on Thursday. An active weather pattern is expected across the area through next week. While rainfall amounts are somewhat uncertain, any heavy rainfall would minimally prolong high river levels on tributary rivers in eastern Iowa and on the Mississippi south of New Boston, IL. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...Speck HYDROLOGY...08