598 FXUS63 KDLH 160542 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1242 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will build overnight into tomorrow with the most impactful rain arriving for Thursday AM commute. - Quick dry-out on Friday before this weekend brings with it more chances for rain and showers. - Active pattern continues into next week with multiple shots of rain expected to start the week off. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Short Term: A gorgeous day across the Northland with plenty of sunshine will see conditions worsen through the afternoon and evening. An approaching shortwave currently across the Dakotas will move through Northern Minnesota tonight and into tomorrow. With it, we will see an occluded front move along with it into our area that will be the focus of our rain chances through tomorrow evening. Rain should overspread from SW to NE through tonight increasing in coverage and intensity. The worst conditions look to peak tomorrow morning just in time for the AM commute. There is a higher chance (30-40%) of heavier showers along the Northshore where some onshore flow and topographic enhancement could come into play. The rain should end across our SW counties around noon and across the Arrowhead and NW Wisconsin later Thursday Afternoon. Rainfall totals look to end up anywhere from 0.25-0.5 which isolated higher amounts where heavier showers end up tomorrow. Extended Range: Friday will be quite nice with drier conditions expected across our CWA, though we will have a 20-30% chance for some afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a weak upper-level wave passes by. Highs will be closer to 60-65 along the Northshore but close to 75-80 degrees further inland. Our next chance for rain comes from a trough exiting the Canadian Rockies and swinging eastward along the Canadian/US border through the weekend. We will see enhanced rain chances on Saturday as a front moves through the area tied to this trough. While there wont be the greatest overlap of moisture and shear, we still could see some stronger storms capable of heavy downpours, strong gusts and small hail. Sunday will be dry with highs topping off in the 70s amidst SW flow and mainly sunny conditions. To begin the workweek, another quick moving shortwave will move through the Northern Plains providing us with another shot for showers to start the week. On Tuesday, a more prominent trough will exit the Rocky Mountains and trek in our direction. Details are still quite low confidence at this point but ensembles are suggesting that this could cause a more prolonged period of precipitation in our vicinity. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 An area of rain showers moves through the Northland creating MVFR visibility within band. Trailing IFR to MVFR ceilings build in behind the main rain band today and last into the afternoon hours at most terminals, longest in the Arrowhead and Minnesota Borderlands this evening. A wind shift to southeasterly to southerly to westerly occurs today between 15-21Z from west to east. While VFR ceilings prevail this evening, there is a 30-40% chance of radiation fog building over the region after 03Z Friday and lasting past this TAF period into early Friday morning. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Easterly to Northeasterly flow will continue into tonight. Winds could gust up to 25kts and wave heights are capable of reaching 4-5ft through this evening. As a result a Small Craft Advisory is in effect and will last until 3am Thursday. Winds will maintain their easterly component into tomorrow but wind gusts will decrease by up to 5kts with waves decreasing into the 3-4ft range. No Small Craft Advisory has been issued but trends will be watched to see if one is needed through tomorrow morning and early afternoon. Winds will turn more westerly following a frontal passage Thursday afternoon decreasing winds into the 5-10kt range with rain showers expected across the Lake. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ143>145. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS/KP AVIATION...NLy MARINE...JDS/KP