788 FXUS62 KTAE 160743 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 343 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper level ridging and deep-layer light northwesterly flow will continue a slight drying trend in which we can expect clear to mostly clear skies today. The high temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, and the overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Although the convective evolution and timing remains somewhat unclear for Friday into Saturday, severe weather certainly remains a concern. On the large scale, the models agree that the forecast area will be in the right entrance region of the southwesterly upper level jet with steep mid-level lapse rates near 7C/km by Saturday. Instability looks decent on all of the guidance with SBCAPE values near 2000 j/kg. The presence of fairly strong mid and upper level winds for mid May standards in this part of the country will also allow for high deep layer shear values. Both the 500 mb and 700 mb winds are expected to exceed the 90th percentile for this time of year on the ECMWF ensemble for Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, precipitable water values in the 90th-99th percentile for this time of year are expected by Saturday afternoon with values nearing 2 inches. Basically, the large scale picture is set for stormy weather depending on the mesoscale details. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern as low level shear looks a bit weak for a big tornado potential. However, I wouldn't completely discount a tornado threat either. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Depending on the timing, a low end chance of showers and thunderstorm could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday, Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures a few degrees above average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light to calm winds this morning will become light northwesterly winds this afternoon, with southwesterly winds affecting the ECP terminal. Clear to mostly clear skies are expected through the term. && .MARINE... High pressure will pass across the waters today with fairly light winds. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Today will be a drier day with light northwest winds and minRH values in the upper 30s this afternoon. The only fire weather concern for today will be the high dispersions in the Georgia districts and the inland regions of the SE FL Big Bend. Our next chance for rain and thunderstorms will be Friday during the afternoon into the evening hours. Most of the rain will be in our Alabama districts but, there is a chance for a wetting rain along I-10 in the western Big Bend and Panhandle; as well as areas west of the Flint River in our Georgia districts. Elevated dispersions will be possible within the Apalachicola Forest Friday afternoon, with moderate dispersions throughout the rest of the region. Better chances for rain are widespread on Saturday, hence there are no other fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta continues in minor flood stage today with the Ochlockonee River close to minor flood stage at Thomasville and Concord. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 69 88 73 / 0 10 40 20 Panama City 87 72 85 73 / 0 10 40 30 Dothan 89 69 87 71 / 0 10 60 40 Albany 88 67 87 71 / 0 10 50 40 Valdosta 89 67 90 72 / 0 0 20 20 Cross City 89 66 88 72 / 0 0 20 10 Apalachicola 84 73 83 75 / 0 10 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Montgomery SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...DVD