416 FXUS62 KRAH 160754 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 354 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight. An upper level disturbance will move in from the southwest Friday, then an upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Mid South and Carolinas Saturday through Sunday, bringing unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Isolated afternoon and early evening showers possible; otherwise, a dry day today with seasonable temperatures. Weak surface high pressure will build into the region today and tonight. A disturbance in the NNW flow aloft may produce some afternoon and early evening cloudiness over the north-central and NE sections of central NC. Some of the CAMS suggest a shower or two may develop with some weak instability under the disturbance late this afternoon into the early evening. However, any showers should be widely scattered with QPF of only a few hundredths to a tenth for those that get a brief shower. Highs today will return to near normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mainly clear skies tonight with light wind will lead to lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... Increasing rain chances again late Friday and Friday night. There is not significant model agreement on the timing of the shower chances with the next approaching mid/upper trough. It appears that Friday will be mostly dry with increasing POP late afternoon and evening, especially in the west. Then, POP ramps up Friday night. The latest CAM solutions are indicating some of the initial heavier rains to remain from MS/AL to GA Friday night - where the stronger convection may track. For now, expect increasing cloudiness Friday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south and west in the afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms become likely Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 354 AM Thursday... As Friday night showers and storms linger into Saturday, medium and long range models are still varying slightly for coverage of rainfall on Saturday. Consistently though, Saturday afternoon/early evening have the best chance for thunderstorms especially over the southern portion of the FA. PW values increase in the afternoon and evening hours to 1.5-1.9 inches which is well above the daily mean. With the surface low moving over the region (or just south of our region) SPC has increased the threat across the entire CWA for severe storms Saturday to a Marginal risk (level 1/5). WPC has continued to forecast a marginal risk for flash flooding across much of the Southeast Saturday as the disturbance moves from the Gulf states up into the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers and storms will linger into late Saturday night and Sunday morning before beginning to clear west to east late Sunday. A few isolated showers linger along the Coastal Plain as the low slowly pushes offshore. As high pressure builds in from the north, CAD conditions are expected to develop early Monday across the NW Piedmont resulting in clouds to stick around for much of the day. Northerly flow will result in cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds south by Wednesday. Temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 70s NW to low 80s SE. Early next week will be below normal with temps ranging from upper 60s NW to upper 70s SE. Temperatures bounce back to above average Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 204 AM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: LIFR/IFR cigs to once again spread across the area tonight, possibly dropping into the LIFR range around daybreak. Cigs should lift to VFR around 15Z Thu. A period of some MVFR vsbys will also be possible late tonight. Looking ahead: VFR conditions should prevail through Friday. Showers and sub-VFR conditions will return late Friday into Sunday, with largely dry conditions returning sometime Monday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Badgett/KC