136 FXUS62 KMHX 161734 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 134 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... high pressure builds Thursday keeping us dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1315 Thursday...No changes required to the near term with SFC low and its associated fronts continuing to push further offshore to the ENE as we settle into the post- frontal air mass and upper ridging building in from the W. Sea breeze develops in the afternoon, but doesn't progress too far inland due to the NW flow. There will be some convergence along the boundary which could lead to some showers popping up along the boundary and moving SEwardly back toward the coast and offshore this afternoon. However, moisture in the column is confined to the low levels and NWerly downsloping flow aloft should act to inhibit any stronger updrafts. Dry forecast will be continued. MaxTs ~80 away from the immediate coast, low 70s OBX, mid-upper 70s Crystal Coast Beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 500 AM Thursday..Low offshore to our east strengthens a tad, and winds pick up as a result for OBX Thursday night, preventing any decoupling. Over mainland ENC however, we should decouple, allowing us to radiate a bit as ridging keeps us mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s for beaches. If we end up clearing completely overnight, lows might be even lower to the low to mid 50s, but seems unlikely at the moment. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 AM Thursday...High pressure will be across the area Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds back in toward the middle of next week. Friday...Ridging crest over the area Friday but shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers during the afternoon, generally along the sea breeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be meager with MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg keeping tstm chances below mentionable. Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period. Beneficial rainfall is expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1.5-2" with locally higher amounts possible. Monday through Wednesday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers into Monday but expect dry conditions into Wednesday. A mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaches the area late Wednesday but moisture looks limited at this time with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 1320 Thursday...VFR flight cats through the day Thurs with low-end chance of subVFR flight cats overnight due to fog. CU field around FL040-050 and light NWerly background wind field through the rest of the afternoon. Seabreeze forecast to remain pinned to the coast through the afternoon where some shower activity is possible, but anything that does pop up is expected to remain E of the TAF sites. Greatest chance to see fog overnight SWern terminals (OAJ). Have included VFR MIFG mention for EWN and ISO with guidance having little agreement for how far E/N the fog will develop. Any fog that does develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday but could see isolated showers during the afternoon bringing brief periods of sub-VFR. A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 500 AM Thursday...SCA for coastal waters between Cape Lookout and Surf City has expired, leaving us with better boating conditions through Thursday. Seas 3-5ft and NE winds near 10kts right now become 2-4ft and NW winds near 10kts this afternoon. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 415 AM Thursday...High pressure will be over the waters Friday with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft, but could be locally higher near the Gulf Stream. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop sometime Sunday and continue into early next week with N to NE winds as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...RJ LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/CEB MARINE...SK/RJ