703 
FXUS62 KKEY 160229
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1029 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Currently - A deep layered trough is riding eastward through the 
eastern United States this evening. This is resulting in an 
associated surface low near the New England coast with a trough 
extending southwestward through the southeastern United States. 
This low has nudged the Atlantic ridge southward across Cuba. The 
combination of the above has resulted in a nebulous wind field 
across the Keys. Meanwhile, modest confluence has setup across our
broader area, but is maximized across Central Florida and well 
north our area. While a few showers were able to percolate in the 
eastern Lower Keys earlier this afternoon, all more recent 
activity has been located along the confluent zone far to the 
north. More recently, this activity has been trending downwards 
but is still sagging slowly southwards.

Short Term Update - The previously mentioned low will meander of
the coast while the attached surface trough pivots slightly
eastward off the southeast coast. As a result, the surface ridge
will remain across Cuba. As day time effects wear off, expect
winds to firm up modestly out of the south to southwest. The best
low level confluence is expected to remain to our north. The Keys
will remain within the southern fringes of this confluent flow, 
but also not far away from the lower level ridge axis. Forecast
soundings suggest some low level inhibition will persist. Taken
together, along with the current activity in the southeast gulf, a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is justified. The
increasing flow will forestall any notion of appreciable 
radiational cooling and overnight lows should still be well up in
the lower 80s. Dew points will also high in the upper 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The combination of mainland day time heating, troughing over the
eastern United States, and a ridge across Florida has resulted in
light and variable winds across Keys waters this evening. As the
mainland cools and day time effects wear off, expect winds to firm
up modestly out of the south to southwest. Have only refreshed
first period wind wording in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
Surface winds will start out light and variable, but will
gradually firm up out of the south to southwest late.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....DP

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