555 FXUS62 KCAE 161744 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 144 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday and especially on Saturday with unsettled weather likely lingering into Sunday. A cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures rebounding during the middle of next week as another ridge moves in from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry mid and upper levels, with some low-level moisture, will remain this evening and into tonight. Low-level moisture will produce some fair weather cu through the afternoon, then those will dissipate towards sunset. Some moisture increase is possible aloft late tonight into Friday morning, with mainly some cirrus moving across the region. Afternoon highs still on track for the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows drop into the mid 60s. Can not rule out patchy fog late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... PWs will begin to increase in advance of the slow moving trough, progged to push through the region over and through the region Friday night through Sunday. Clouds will increase as a result of the increasing moisture, and this should hold temperatures down into the low to mid 80s for highs for most. Rain is expected to begin developing in the late afternoon with more widespread coverage likely as isentropic lift increases across the area ahead of the shortwave trough. Lows overnight should remain in the upper 60s given the rain and cloud cover. Saturday's forecast is at least interesting, but skepticism regarding overall severe threat is fairly high. While ensemble guidance is fairly bullish with probability for some instability & shear across the southern FA, clouds are expected to be widespread and with at least some rain remaining across the area, it is uncertain whether we'll be able to destabilize enough or not. Synoptic forcing looks good, but there is not a strong, definite low-level forcing mechanism that would focus convection. CSU probabilities are elevated across the southern FA and that is definitely the spot if we have severe convection Saturday. Highs on Saturday are very dependent on cloud cover, but should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s across the FA. Some shower activity will probably hang around thru the overnight hours, with lows falling into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Continue to expect showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough swings overhead. The cool mid-level temps could actually yield a favorable environment for strong thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, so we will need to keep an eye on model trends over the next couple of days. There after, cooler air pushes in on Monday and maybe Tuesday as surface high pressure ridges into the region. Some indication of weak wedge conditions setting up on Monday but it is so climatologically unfavored this time of year that we will need more model guidance to actually delineate whether or not that happens. Ridging is expected to push over head through the remainder of the period, with seasonally low chances for rainfall and above normal temps by this time next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the end of the period. Fair weather cu fields will remain through the afternoon around 4-5kft, then dissipate towards sunset. Only cloud cover overnight will be some this cirrus beginning to move into the region, becoming more broken by Friday morning. With some low- level moisture in place light winds, can not rule out some patchy fog development near rivers late tonight, with mvfr visibilities at ags/ogb possible. Winds this afternoon light and out of the north, then calm to light/variable overnight. Winds turning more southerly but still light after sunrise Friday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions are possible again Friday afternoon through Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$