989 FXUS61 KRLX 162033 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 433 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A few showers and an isolated storm possible through this evening. Better potential for rain arrives on Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 430 PM Thursday... Showers continue to develop across portions of the CWA this afternoon. PoPs have been expanded farther north and west to reflect the coverage of these showers. No other significant changes to the forecast have been made at this time. As of 150 PM Thursday... Satellite trends at the time of writing displayed one cluster stretching through the I-64 and I-77 corridors of lingering stratus, while clearing has taken place for southeast Ohio and eastern and southern West Virginia. Dry air entrainment in the midst of a departing front will encourage further clearing over the next few hours. Areas that have branched out with peeks of sunshine already will have the best chance of sufficient diurnal heating today to achieve afternoon highs in the upper 70s, while those still socked in within heavier cloud coverage will stay a few degrees cooler than guidance suggests. Within the cumulus fields along the foothills and mountains of West Virginia this afternoon, a few showers have begun to sprout and progressing to the southeast. Lackluster upper level support will mitigate additional growth outside of a rogue thunderstorm today, keeping severe weather potential at bay. Activity will diminish quickly with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight conditions are progged to be quiet, with the exception of low level clouds and river valley fog developing along the higher terrain. For Friday, a disturbance ventures in from the west, first reintroducing clouds overhead followed by a gradual increase in precipitation. Light rainfall accumulations first begin west of the Ohio River Friday morning, then spreading eastward throughout the day and increasing in response to potential convective trends. Localized flooding concerns become more feasible as the day wears on around the forecast area, especially in the event of multiple rounds of showers and storms and/or heavier downbursts associated with convection. Temperatures once again branch into the 60s (mountains) and mid to upper 70s (lowlands) for Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... A southern stream developing surface low over the Midwest will advect toward the area first by lifting a warm front into the area and then putting us in the warm sector starting this period. Showers and storms should be prevalent by Friday evening, but activity should wane as the sun goes down into the overnight. The surface low, supported by a small short wave upper level trough, will setup directly west of us just like the last system that came through in the beginning of the week. The low is forecast to take a direct pass overhead just as the last feature did and slowly exit Sunday morning. Between that time numerous rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms could be expected with excessive rainfall being the main threat to the area. We were mainly primed with the last system and now that we will have weak flow again we may have issues with hydro, especially under slow moving or training storms. Since the threat will be from scattered convection across the area, a watch will likely not get issued for some instances of isolated flash flooding, however we will have to keep an eye out still. Cloudy skies and weak cold air advection will keep temperatures subdued at seasonable or just below. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... By late Sunday morning, the aforementioned low will have kicked out toward the east, but the lagging parent trough will slowly move overhead throughout the day. Surface high pressure will then build in from the northeast, believe it or not, and hold settled weather across the area for Monday. Upper level ridging will then move in from the west late Monday and hold settled weather into Tuesday. Thereafter, we cannot rule out diurnal shower and storm activity into Wednesday. By mid day Wednesday, models have a frontal boundary sweeping through the area which will promote unsettled weather if the mid to long rang models are correct. This feature should be a quick mover opening up Thursday to a nice settled high pressure day. With high pressure and mainly clear skies with southerly flow expect temperatures to be on the increase this period where Monday through Wednesday will mainly be above seasonable. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM Thursday... Persnickety IFR ceilings continue to fester over the central lowlands this afternoon as a front drifts nearby. Skies are anticipated to scatter over the next several hours, so opted to include tempo groups for sites still socked within low level stratus through 21Z then branching out into VFR for the evening. Winds grow calm overnight and help to encourage another round of fog and/or low stratus along the spine of the Appalachians tonight. Elsewhere, pockets of MVFR ceilings trickle down into the Ohio River Valley around daybreak Friday morning ahead of a system encroaching for the weekend. Mixing may allow for low-end VFR for the daytime hours Friday, with showers becoming more likely as the afternoon wears on. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving ceilings may vary this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR valley fog possible Friday morning. IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/MEK NEAR TERM...MEK/JLB SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MEK