957 FXUS61 KCAR 161013 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 613 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will slowly move south of the region later today through tonight. Unsettled conditions, with daily shower chances, will then persist through the weekend into early next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:13 AM Update...Removed mention of fog in the Bangor region and Downeast this morning. Upstream observations and satellite data do not indicate any fog development in the region. Also made minor tweaks to temperatures to account for latest trends. Previous Discussion... A stalled frontal boundary continues to sit over the area and slowly wash out. A mid-level shortwave moving through is producing showers and some steadier rain north of the Katahdin region. This activity will diminish later this morning as the shortwave moves east. However, with the front nearby, afternoon showers will once again be a possibility, mainly north of Bangor. The greatest chance will be from about the Millinocket area into southeastern Aroostook County. Instability will be lower than yesterday, so thunderstorms are not expected. Highs today will be in the upper 60s north of Katahdin. Expect lower to mid 70s to the south, with cooler temperatures at the coast. Shower activity will mostly come to an end after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. That said, an isolated shower will still be possible in the far north. Some fog will be possible late, mainly Downeast and into the Bangor region. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, except upper 40s at the coast and near Estcourt Station. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A surface trof and approaching upper level disturbance along with diurnal heating will support a chance of showers north, slight chance Downeast, Friday. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies north with partly sunny skies Downeast. The approaching upper level disturbance will help support a chance of showers across northern areas Friday night. However, with the loss of diurnal hearing, shower coverage will decrease. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Friday night. The upper level disturbance begins to cross the region Saturday. At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge back across Downeast areas. The upper level disturbance will support a chance of showers across mostly northern/central areas. With surface ridging, expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies Downeast. With the loss of diurnal heating and the upper disturbance exiting, expect decreasing shower chances across northern areas Saturday night along with mostly/partly cloudy skies. Mostly/partly cloudy skies are expected Downeast. Above normal level temperatures are expected Friday/Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A disturbance moving south in advance of an approaching upper ridge could bring a slight chance of showers to northern areas Sunday. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies across the forecast area with surface ridging persisting. The surface ridge begins to move southeast Monday. At the same time, a disturbance will flatten the upper ridge. The disturbance could bring a slight chance/chance of showers to mostly northern areas Monday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies across the region Monday. Skies will remain partly cloudy Tuesday. However, another possible upper level disturbance could also bring a slight chance/chance of showers to mostly northern areas. Low pressure tracking west of the region will draw a cold front toward the forecast area later Wednesday. Expect partly sunny skies along with a slight chance/chance of afternoon showers. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Northern Terminals: MVFR/IFR this morning with low clouds and SHRA. Some LIFR cigs at CAR and PQI through 12-14z. Then mainly MVFR this afternoon with VCSH. A period of VFR possible this evening, before trending to MVFR/IFR late tonight. Light N-NE winds today and tonight. Southern Terminals: Mainly VFR today through this evening. A period of IFR or lower possible again tonight with BCFG, especially at coastal terminals. Light S winds today, becoming E-NE tonight. SHORT TERM: Friday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers north, slight chance Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast/south. Friday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of showers north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, mostly north. Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots. Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance to chance of showers north. VFR Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Monday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of showers north. VFR Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and wave heights remain below Small Craft Advisory levels today and tonight. Fog will reduce visibility at times over the waters as warm, humid air moves over the colder waters. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday through Saturday night. Patchy/areas of fog Friday into Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Clark Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Clark/Norcross Marine...Clark/Norcross