452 FXUS61 KBTV 160747 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Stationary boundary remains over our region today with some scattered light rain showers. The forecast trends drier to close out the week. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward, with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week expected with a gradual warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...Weak stationary boundary will remain in place today, leading to some scattered light rain showers possible for most of the day. Front will finally shift south and east of the region tonight, and drier weather will return for tonight and Friday. Some ridging begins to work into the region today, therefore don't expect as many showers today as the past couple days. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Could see some fog development again overnight, but shouldn't be as widespread as this morning since we'll be a day removed from the heavier precipitation and ridging will help us start to dry out. A dry and pleasant day is expected for Friday with high temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals as maximum temperatures reach the lower to upper 70s. Will have increasing chances for showers late in the day in our far western zones with next approaching system. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...Deterministic guidance continues to be split in regard to precipitation chances for Friday night through Saturday with notable differences seen in the track of a mid-level shortwave trough. Drier solutions track this feature north of the international border, while the wetter ones dip the track across northern portions of the North Country and Vermont. Ensemble members seem to lean more towards the wetter solutions so have bumped PoPs a bit into the 40- 60% range across the North Country with lower chances of 20-30% across northern VT. A few rumbles of thunder additionally can't be ruled out Friday night, though mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...A significant warming trend is then expected for the latter half of the weekend through at least Tuesday as guidance continues to trend towards a stronger mid/upper level ridge building across the Northeast. Ensemble probabilities of max temps greater than 75 degrees increase each day from 60-80% of the members on Sunday, to 70-90% for Monday and Tuesday with 2/3rds of members showing potential for highs greater than 80 degrees in the wider valleys. The good news is that dewpoints don't look to be particularly high, only in the 50s, so humidity should be relatively comfortable. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Wednesday with the potential for a strong frontal passage. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Saturated ground, copious low level moisture and light winds is leading to fog formation similar to last night. After 13z, southeast to east flow will develop over Vermont, except northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast over New York. Winds speeds should generally stay 5 to 9 knots. A few showers will develop, mainly near the international border about 15z to 23z. Will need to monitor potential for fog formation once again tonight. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Neiles