357 FXUS61 KALY 161930 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 330 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers end this evening, with dry weather returning to the region through Friday as high pressure builds in. Additional chances for rain showers arrive Friday night into Saturday, more likely for areas west of the Hudson. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A vertically-stacked surface and upper low continue to meander off the New Jersey and Long Island coasts, with rain showers pivoting about their northwestern flank into the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills, as well as adjacent portions of eastern New York including the Mid-Hudson Valley and Taconics. Overcast skies in the same areas give way to isolated showers and mostly cloudy conditions farther from the low in the western Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks, where heights aloft have begun to rise as ridging noses into the region. Afternoon temperatures remain below normal where rain is ongoing, only reaching highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, while mid 60s to low 70s are expected farther north and west. As the coastal system drifts into the North Atlantic, ridging will build in to its west, yielding a drying and clearing trend across the region this evening through tonight. Temperatures will be seasonable, with early morning lows in the upper 40s in high terrain to mid 50s at lower elevations. Patchy fog may develop overnight, particularly in sheltered valleys west of the Hudson where more widespread clearing is expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the coastal low continues to pull away into the North Atlantic, brief weak ridging builds into the region, bringing a period of dry weather beneath partly cloudy skies through the day on Friday. As 850 hPa temperatures reach nearly 10C, surface temperatures rise some 5-10 degrees above normal to afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in high terrain to mid 70s to near 80 at lower elevations. By Friday evening, an upper-level shortwave will approach from the west, lifting across the North Country and into northern New England by Saturday morning. Increasing clouds from west to east will precede its passage, with isolated to scattered rain showers reaching into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley Friday evening and night. Temperatures remain seasonably mild, reaching overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. Scattered showers may continue through Saturday, particularly west of the Hudson as well as in the southern Greens. Mostly cloudy skies trend clearer by Saturday evening, with showers diminishing by sunset as the upper shortwave exits eastward toward the Canadian Maritimes while ridging builds overhead through early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain pleasant and seasonable, reaching afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s in high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and falling to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A Rex Block pattern looks to set up Sunday through Tuesday with upper level high pressure overhead with an upper level low across the Southeast US. Surface high pressure sets up along the East Coast and will result in a period of mostly dry weather. The exception could be for some very isolated showers across some higher terrain areas. Temperatures will run above normal with highs mainly in the 70s each day with some lower 80s across the valleys on Monday and Tuesday. The Rex Block begins to break down by Wednesday as an upper-level trough and surface cold front approach from the west. Timing of this front remains a bit uncertain but looks to push through during Wednesday night into early Thursday. This looks to bring our next best chance for some showers and a few thunderstorms as guidance suggests some weak instability could be in place. Forecast confidence begins to decrease for later in the week with either flat ridging or upper-level troughing overhead. For now, will run with the NBM for Thursday which places chance POPs across the region. Thursday would also turn out slightly cooler after the cold frontal passage with highs in the 60s/70s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain from system offshore Long Island is producing MVFR ceilings and visibilities at KPOU, while just some occasional sprinkles at KALB and KPSF. Ceilings at KPSF in the MVFR range, while KALB and KGFL, farther from the offshore storm, are VFR. The storm should continue tracking farther offshore, so conditions will improve to VFR at KPSF and KPOU, mainly between midnight and 12Z. Conditions will remain VFR at KALB and KGFL. We will have to watch how much any clouds will break up through the night because if some intervals of breaks in the clouds occur, there could be some fog but those chances are very low. By 12Z-14Z Just scattered clouds at KALB and KGFL with scattered variable broken clouds above 3000 feet at KPOU and KPSF. VFR continues through Friday morning. North to east winds at around 10 Kt through this afternoon, with a few gusts approaching 20 Kt at KPOU and KPSF, maybe a few gusts at KALB. Winds become light and variable at 6 Kt or less tonight, continuing through Friday morning, although predominantly north to east at KPOU and KPSF. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Picard NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Picard LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...NAS