533 FXUS63 KLMK 151901 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 301 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty showers and storms possible Sunday into early next week, with mostly dry conditions likely from mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Quiet and dry weather continues this afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes region gradually slides eastward into the northeastern U.S. Temperatures have warmed up quite a bit from morning lows though there is a bit of a T/Td gradient across the region. Where the low level moisture is a bit higher, we've seen a cu-field develop, though strong capping will keep vertical growth in the cumulus field to a minimum. Skies will clear out overnight as the sun begins to set and we should stay clear into tomorrow morning. Surface flow will take on a more southerly component during the day tomorrow which will help advect in warmer temps and higher dewpoints. Peak heat indices during the afternoon tomorrow will likely range from 97 to 103, with the highest values across our southwestern CWA and larger urban areas. We'll likely stay just short of heat advisory criteria (heat index of 105), so no headlines planned at this time. The capping inversion tomorrow will be a bit weaker compared to today, particularly toward southern KY where increased low level moisture will erode much of the cap, so showers and storms remain a possibility during the afternoon hours. Overall activity will be scattered given weak/subtle lifting mechanisms at the surface. Organized severe weather is not anticipated with storms tomorrow, but higher DCAPEs (~1,000 J/KG) could support gusty winds in wet microbursts. Heavy rainfall will also be likely in showers/storms. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 259 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Above normal temperatures and muggy conditions are anticipated next week as a very anomalous dome of warm air associated with a strong upper level ridge remains anchored to much of the eastern CONUS. Afternoon highs Monday into Friday of next week will likely range from low to mid 90s, with a few locations (particularly bigger urban areas) nearing upper 90s on a couple of days toward the end of the week. The combination of heat and humidity will likely result in peak heat indices ranging from the low 90s to upper 90s during the week. The LMK CWA heat advisory criteria starts at 105 degree heat indices, which looks like we'll fall short of based on the latest blend of data. For prolonged heat events (typically 4 consecutive days or more) that could have impacts, this criteria can be lowered, though there is some doubt we will have a long stretch of consecutive days with impactful heat indices (i.e., Tuesday and Wednesday may only see peak heat indices in low/mid 90s) to warrant heat headlines at this point in time. This will continue to be monitored in subsequent forecast updates. During the upcoming week, there could be a couple of chances for showers/storms to provide some temporary relief from the heat. A plume of moisture and unstable air may filter into the region Monday and result in scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. The axis of moisture/instability looks to shifts westward on Tuesday as the upper ridge becomes more elongated and oriented from the Gulf Coast states into the Mid-Atlantic. This will unfortunately limit any sort of rainfall potential over southern Indiana and central Kentucky from mid to late week as strong subsidence aloft and capping in the low/mid levels suppresses convective efforts. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Easterly winds will remain sustained around 8-13kts through the day with occasional gusts near 20kts. Cu-field will also be prevalent in areas where higher low level moisture resides. Skies will clear out overnight and winds will go light with steady veering to the south tomorrow morning after sunrise. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday night for KYZ029>031. IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Sunday night for INZ076>079-083- 084-089>092. && $$ SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...DM AVIATION...DM