262 FXUS61 KRLX 151236 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 836 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After fog burns off this morning, today will be a bit cooler than yesterday. However, an extended stretch of hot and dry weather will begin Sunday and last much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 835 AM Saturday... This morning's temperatures have been tweaked to account for latest observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. A comfortably warm day is expected with low humidity. As of 215 AM Saturday... Fog has developed and is noted in almost every valley across the northeastern quadrant of the CWA, and may spread further southwestward as the night goes on. There was some fog earlier over SE Ohio and the Mid-Ohio Valley area, but a bit of dry advection behind the cold front has helped clear that out, and as of right now it seems unlikely to return. Fog should burn off for most areas by around 800 AM or so, but could linger a bit longer in a few valleys. Behind yesterday's weak cold front, most of the CWA is forecast to be a few degrees less hot than yesterday, but still near normal for mid-June. It will be sunny and dry across the area, with gentle N-NE'ly breezes. Clear and calm conditions are expected overnight, with lows ranging from the low 50s in the highest elevations to the low 60s in some lowland areas. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Saturday... Key Point: * Heat wave initiates next week. An upper level ridge of high pressure strengthens over the southeastern US on Sunday, then gravitates northward on Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the weekend, then a low chance of a few showers or afternoon storms returns on Monday. The biggest concern for the beginning of next week will be the initiation of a heat wave across the region. Highs on Sunday should reach low to mid 90s in the lowlands and 70s to 80s along the mountains. Temperatures then rise even more for the work week, with 80s to mid 90s expected along the mountains each day. Meanwhile, mid to upper 90s are anticipated for the lowlands. Between heat and some humidity, it is likely to feel more like upper 90s to low 100s in the lowlands both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Starting Monday, temperatures are projected to climb towards record highs in some locations. Forecast / Record High Temperatures ------------------------------------------------ - Mon, 6/17 | Tue, 6/18 ------------------------------------------------ - Charleston | 93 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) - Huntington | 94 / 100 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) - Clarksburg | 93 / 96 (1967) | 96 / 96 (1936) - Parkersburg | 94 / 98 (1936) | 96 / 98 (1944) - Beckley | 87 / 93 (1936) | 89 / 93 (1936) - Elkins | 91 / 92 (1936) | 93 / 91 (1994) ------------------------------------------------ As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 AM Saturday... Key Point: * Hot weather continues into the second half of the work week. High pressure remains in control over the area during the second half of the work week. This should sustain rather hot conditions for the entirety of the long term forecast period. Mid to late week highs are currently forecast to approach or even exceed record high temperatures at some of the climate sites. While drier conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period, a few models hint at the possibility of some afternoon showers and storms -- particularly towards the end of the week. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 710 AM Saturday... After any lingering fog or low stratus burns off in the first hour of the TAF valid period, we can expect VFR conditions and gentle N-NE'ly winds today, turning E-SE'ly overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 EDT 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JLB/JMC NEAR TERM...FK/JMC SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...FK