152 FXUS61 KRLX 181239 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 839 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated strong storms will be possible today. A prolonged heat wave continues throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 840 AM Tuesday... No changes necessary to forecast. As of 600 AM Tuesday... The near term forecast is generally on track this morning, with no significant changes needed at this time. As of 240 AM Tuesday... Key Points: * Hot, with potential for isolated strong storms and locally heavy rain this afternoon and evening. * Heat Advisory remains in effect. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are gradually diminishing in coverage while areas of fog begin to form early this morning. Any fog that does develop should disperse around sunrise. In the upper levels, high pressure will be in control over much of the eastern US both today and tonight. Beneath this high, hot daytime temperatures and humidity will again lead to unstable conditions and the potential for showers and storms during the day. Much like yesterday, model soundings show strong CAPE, weak shear, and precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 2 inch range during the afternoon and evening hours. In this environment, isolated storms could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain. Much of the area resides in a general thunderstorm risk, though a marginal risk of severe weather has been introduced for a portion of southeast Ohio. Shower and storm activity should lessen tonight. High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s in the lowlands this afternoon, while the mountains should range from mid 70s to low 90s. A couple of climate sites could come within a few degrees of their record highs (see climate discussion below). A Heat Advisory also remains in effect as a combination of heat and humidity are projected to make it feel more like upper 90s to low 100s in the lowlands this afternoon. Tonight will be warm, with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and low to mid 60s in the mountains. Heat safety tips: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals * Know the signs of heat illness && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM Tuesday... The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will remain over the area for the middle of the week, keeping the CWA hot and dry. Highs on Wednesday will be in the low to mid-90s, with most locations a few degrees hotter on Thursday. Deepening dry air aloft will mix down during this period, and likely will help keep afternoon heat index values under 100F. However, with the expectation for overnight lows around or a bit above 70F each night, the heat stress will continue to compound across the area and the Advisory will remain in place. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 325 AM Tuesday... Most guidance has Friday and Saturday as the hottest days of the week-long heatwave, with lower elevation highs mostly mid to upper 90s, while the mountains get into the 80s. The upper-level ridge is forecast to start getting suppressed southward on Saturday as an upper-level trough crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley and heads towards the Great Lakes. However, that is likely to have a negligible impact on temps for Saturday. Gradually increasing moisture could allow for some afternoon or evening showers over the northern mountains on Saturday. As the upper trough and surface front push into the Midwest on Sunday, area-wide isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible. POPs are currently highest for Sunday night into Monday, which is when most guidance would have the surface front passing through our area, However, there still remains 12 hours or more of spread in the timing, so POPs were kept to Chance levels at best for the time being. Regardless, after two very hot days on Friday and Saturday, the additional cloud cover on Sunday and expected front and precip on Monday should provide a gradual decrease of almost 10 degrees in forecast highs for Monday as compared to Saturday. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 600 AM Tuesday... VFR will return to all terminals once fog dissipates after sunrise. While VFR is expected for most of the day, brief reductions in visibility to MVFR/IFR could occur in isolated showers and storms that develop this afternoon and evening. Activity should lessen overnight, then at least partial clearing and calm winds may allow fog to develop again overnight. Strong, gusty winds could occur in today's storms. Otherwise, south to southeast flow will be light during the day and then calm to light overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief sub-VFR conditions could occur in showers/storms today. Fog tonight may be more widespread than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... As of 240 AM Tuesday... A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | 94 / 99 (1931) | HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) | 95 /100 (1931) | CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 92 / 94 (1994) | 94 / 94 (1931) | PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) | 96 / 97 (1931) | BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 85 / 90 (1944) | 88 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 90 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 91 / 92 (1931) | -------------------------------------------------------- Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 | Sunday, 6/23 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 97 /105 (1931) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 /100 (1929) | HTS | 99 / 99 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 /100 (1930) | CKB | 95 / 98 (1953) | 95 / 97 (1923) | 92 / 96 (1957) | PKB | 98 / 97 (1953) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 94 / 94 (1964) | BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 88 / 91 (1931) | EKN | 92 / 92 (1953) | 92 / 93 (1923) | 90 / 89 (1899) | -------------------------------------------------------- Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records. Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 97 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 99 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 95 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 91 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 92 | 96 (2012) | ----------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB NEAR TERM...SL/JLB SHORT TERM...FK LONG TERM...FK AVIATION...JLB CLIMATE...