780 FXUS64 KSHV 241123 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate our weather pattern today, resulting in more hot and humid conditions. Highs today will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees again. These temps combined with dewpoints in the 70s, will yield heat index values from 105-109 degrees. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will remain across the entire Four State Region today. One thing of note is that we could see some rain move into portions of the region this afternoon. With the center of the aforementioned ridge across western Texas, the eastern periphery of the ridge will only extend into the Lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for northwesterly flow aloft across the SE CONUS. Models suggest that a cool front will try to backdoor out of the SE CONUS into the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop along the front and could push westward into our eastern Louisiana parishes. Although my confidence isn't very high on this happening due to the strength of the ridge, decided to stick with National Blend and keep some slight to low chance POPs in the previously mentioned areas, as there is some model support for this scenario to happen. Across the remainder of the region, a stray shower or two can't be ruled out with daytime heating. Precip should diminish by the early evening hours, leaving behind another warm and humid night across the region, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. The ridge will continue to hang across the region on Tuesday, but the center of it will shift westward into the SW CONUS. This may allow northwesterly flow aloft to develop over our north and eastern zones. This could allow for a weak disturbance move along the flow and bring some slight rain chances across SW Arkansas. Additional rain chances will be in place across our extreme eastern Louisiana Parishes near the previous day's cold front, as it will stall across the southern portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. For the remainder of the area, still can't rule out a stray shower or two with daytime heating. However despite the rain chances, the upper ridge will have enough influence on the region to yield another day of hot and humid temps, with highs ranging again from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. As a result, a Heat Advisory will remain in place through Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the SW CONUS. The eastern periphery of the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for northwesterly flow to move into the eastern half of our area. Models suggest a cool front will try to backdoor into the region along the flow, before it stalls or washes out across our South-Central Arkansas and adjacent Louisiana zones. Despite this, there is a chance it could bring some widespread slight to low chance POPS to the area. Regardless, wouldn't be surprised to see additional heat products, as highs are still forecast to climb into the mid to upper 90s. The ridge will try to reestablish itself more eastward for the remainder of the work week into the first half of the weekend, but some slight to low chance POPS will remain across our Northeast and Central Louisiana zones, along with portions of Deep East Texas. Expect hot and humid conditions to remain across the region during this period, with afternoon highs continuing to range from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. By Sunday into Monday, models start to differ. There is some hint that the ridge will start to break down, allowing a cool front to slowly move into the region, bringing widespread rain chances. But other long-range progs are keeping the ridge firmly over the region, which would keep us with hot and humid conditions. Decided to split the difference and keep some slight to low chance POPS over the area, along with highs in the mid to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 80 99 80 / 10 10 10 10 MLU 99 77 98 77 / 20 10 10 10 DEQ 97 74 97 74 / 10 10 20 10 TXK 100 78 99 79 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 98 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 10 TYR 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 100 77 99 78 / 10 10 10 10 LFK 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...44