A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Nashville TN
613 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Dry conditions prevailing as these early morning hours have
progressed and prevalence of dry atmospheric conditions will
continue through morning hours today. With favorable dewpoint
depressions, and in some locations light to calm winds with breaks
in cloud coverage, patchy fog could develop and continue until
mid morning hour today.
Let's take a look at two events that will be potential major
players in potential of strong to severe storm development
across mid state region this afternoon through tonight. First,
possible development of showers and storms from our southwest as
afternoon hours progress today. In examining latest CAMs, North
American, and even global model trends, all generally agree that
convection will move in from southwest today, but some CAMs have
it as early as early afternoon hours across Nashville Metro area
with some only isolated convection across far southwest late.
During afternoon hours today, as region continues under warm
sector development, with it not being out of the question that
record highs could be approached or reached at least across
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region. Thus this seasonally
warm rich atmospheric airmass looks to be supportive of robust
convective development with upper level shortwave movement
timing eastward into western half of our area key. Model sounding
derived CAPE values could be as high as around 2,000 J/KG, with
PW values around 1.5 inches, with SRH values potentially in
lower 100s, with supportive low to mid level lapse rates for
robust convection development. The coverage of afternoon
convection will play a key role in how much atmosphere has been
worked over and what impacts second wave of convection will bring.
If just isolated convection develops across western portions of
our area this afternoon, secondly, the better chance of strong to
severe thunderstorm development looks to be as evening into at
least first part of overnight hours progress as a strong surface
cold front approaches and then moves into mid state region from
our northwest with a line of showers and storms developing ahead
of it. On average of model derived soundings, not as much overall
CAPE, but a little more SRH than afternoon hours expected tonight,
and with zonal flow aloft supporting multiple shortwave
disturbances in flow aloft. Brief heavy rainfall during evening
hours looks also possible from stronger convection development.
Still looking at 8 PM to 1 AM time frame for greatest risk of
strong to severe storm potential with a general 3 PM to 3 AM time
frame for overall concern of strong to severe storm development.
Within these two waves of potential convective development, lean
toward strong to damaging winds being primary storm threat, but
certainly can not rule out development of large hail or even
development of isolated tornadoes, especially for locations
approaching Land Between the Lakes Region where better dynamics
are expected to be in place supporting this development
respectively. Surface cold front should be positioned just west of
Cumberland Plateau Region just after sunrise on Friday. Thus lows
tonight will range in lower 60s across much of area and may dip
into mid 50s across northwestern portions. Surface cold front will
continue pushing southeastward as day on Friday progressing, with
most showers and storms pushing east of mid state region by late
afternoon hours on Friday. Highs on Friday across eastern and
southern locations will remain relatively seasonally warm, but
highs will be cooler across northern locations mainly in upper
60s.
 National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For TIPTON County
Issued at 1100 AM CDT THU APR 18 2024
WEST TENNESSEE
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MEMPHIS INTL PTSUNNY 77 70 79 SE10 30.01F
NWS MEMPHIS N/A 77 N/A N/A MISG N/A
JACKSON CLOUDY 76 65 68 S6 30.05R
DYERSBURG CLOUDY 75 71 87 S7 30.03S
COVINGTON CLOUDY 75 70 83 S9 30.02S
UNION CITY PTSUNNY 77 72 83 SE10G16 30.01F
BOLIVAR PTSUNNY 75 68 78 SE7 30.03F
PARIS PTSUNNY 77 66 69 S10G17 30.04F
HUNTINGDON PTSUNNY 77 68 73 S9 30.04S
LEXINGTON MOSUNNY 77 66 69 VRB5G16 30.05F
SELMER PTSUNNY 75 66 73 S8 30.05S
SAVANNAH PTSUNNY 77 72 83 SE8 30.04S
Current Temperatures,
Dewpoint,
RH,
Wind,
Regional Obs,
Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Tennessee
Based on observations at 1100am CDT, Thursday April 18, 2024
Across Tennessee...temperatures are near 77 degrees west and near 74 degrees central. Current sky conditions are partly sunny west and partly sunny central. In the west, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 70 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 66%, and the dew point is near 62 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 10 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 10 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are unavailable east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 77 degrees at Union City, Savannah, Paris, Memphis NWS, Memphis International Airport, Lexington, and Huntingdon. The lowest temperature is 74 degrees at Nashville.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
US Radar,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For TIPTON County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For TIPTON County, TN
315 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
TODAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
TONIGHT
Showers with thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms after midnight.
Lows in the mid 50s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming
northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.
FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Much cooler. Less humid with highs around 70. North winds
10 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 50s.
Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
SATURDAY
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
SATURDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s.
SUNDAY
Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the
morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs in the lower
60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
MONDAY
Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s.
TUESDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
TUESDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the
evening. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Fire Danger,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Day 2
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Tennessee
TENNESSEE
---------------------------------------------
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
APR 23-27 APR 25-MAY 1 JUN JUN-AUG
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature:
Precipitation:
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Text,
30-Day Outook,
90-Day Outook,
120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information
Thursday April 18, 2024 the 109th Day of Year
---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 11.360000
Distance 0.999719 AU
Rise 07:08 EDT Set 20:24 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:45 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:43 EDT Ends 20:50 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
APRIL 18TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1880...
More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to
Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65
persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)
...1906...
A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread
fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum)
...1944...
California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two
million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley
destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)
...1957...
A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air,
and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three
were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it
moved westward. (The Weather Channel)
...1970...
Rapid City SD received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th)
(The Weather Channel)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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