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Wayne County, IN Weather And Climate Synopsis

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National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
256 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

* High Wind Warning late tonight into Thursday north
* Wind Advisory south
* Heavy rain possible tonight

This Afternoon into Tonight

Generally quiet conditions continue this afternoon ahead of an 
approaching storm system that will arrive this evening. Latest 
observations show clouds continuing to increase in coverage and 
thickness. Some rain has been noted on the Evansville radar just now 
starting to enter Knox County. The rain is expected to gradually 
spread northward for the remainder of today, reaching Indianapolis 
around 7pm or so. 

Rain could become heavy at times during the night, with high-res 
models hinting at some embedded convective activity along the 
system's warm front. A potent 850mb jet upwards of 75kts is expected 
to develop overnight, with robust warm air and moisture advection 
leading to strong frontogenesis along the nose of the developing 
jet. Model soundings show elevated instability developing after 06z, 
rooted around 850mb, as WAA substantially increases the warm nose 
and steepens mid-level lapse rates. PWAT values of over 1.25 inches 
exceeding the 90th percentile for this time of the year, strong 
convergence along the warm front, along with instability aloft 
should lead to a period of intense rainfall rates. An inch or two of 
rain may fall in a 2 to 4 hour period, confined to a rather narrow 
band extending along the front - roughly from Terre Haute to 
Indianapolis. Isolated flooding is possible if amounts exceed 2 
inches, but the threat is low enough to preclude a flood watch at 
the moment.

Once the warm front lifts northward, rain and thunderstorms should 
become more scattered in nature. An isolated strong to severe wind 
gust is possible with any thunderstorm, as very strong LLJ winds 
will be just above the surface. However, model soundings continue to 
indicate a low level inversion through the night, thus limiting the 
threat for severe thunderstorms. The best chance could be any 
convection out ahead and along the system's approaching cold front.

Temperatures should rise into the 50s overnight as the warm front 
passes to our north and WAA takes hold. Non-thunderstorm surface 
winds should begin to increase towards morning as the system deepens 
and strengthens the MSLP gradient across the region.

Thursday

Thursday morning, the low will continue to deepen within a highly 
dynamic environment and strong baroclinic zone. This will lead to a 
further steepening pressure gradient over central Indiana. Rain 
showers will exit to the NE Thursday morning in front of a dry slot. 
A few thunderstorms will still be possible over N/NE central Indiana 
ahead of the front, and convective mixing could lead to an isolated 
high wind gust prior to the start of the High Wind Warning. 

Within the dry slot non-thunderstorm winds become a concern with the 
lower level lapse rates steepening and increasing the mixing depth. 
The LLJ will be slightly weaker than the pre-frontal jet, but with 
he low continuing to deepen, 1km winds of 60-70kts will be likely. 
As the PBL expands in the drier air, vertical mixing should be able 
to tap into this LLJ, leading to wind gusts of 55MPH or greater. 
This has lead to a High Wind Warning for locations north of I-70, 
where 1km winds will be strongest near the center of the low. Strong 
wind gusts will still be likely for all of central Indiana, but the 
magnitude is expected to be less (45-55MPH). 

The cold air should remain well NW of central Indiana with the DCB 
limiting its southward extend, but still a steady drop in 
temperatures are likely within the dry slot. This should lead to 
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s, down from upper 50s to low 
60s in the morning. Winds should begin to die down overnight as the 
low passes to the NE and a developing diurnal inversion, ending the 
wind threat around dusk.

NWS Weather Discussion
National Ag. Weather Outlook (Repair this link), International Highlights ,International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

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Regional Hourly Observations For WAYNE County
Issued at 600 PM EST WED FEB 08 2023
CENTRAL INDIANA
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
LAFAYETTE      CLOUDY    45  33  63 E6        30.16S                  
KOKOMO*        CLOUDY    43  36  76 E3        30.18R                  
MARION*        CLOUDY    44  31  61 CALM      30.18S                  
MUNCIE*        CLOUDY    48  33  56 E5        30.16S                  
INDIANAPOLIS   LGT RAIN  47  37  68 SE9       30.15R                  

Hourly Obs., Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, Rh, Wind, Regional Obs., Station Model, Surface 4-Panel
Meteograms: South Bend , Fort Wayne , Lafayette , Indianapolis , Evansville


Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Indiana
Based on observations at 600pm EST, Wednesday February 08, 2023

Across Indiana...temperatures are near 41 degrees north, near 47 degrees central, and near 49 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, light rain central, and rain south. In the north, relative humidity is near 65%, and the dew point is near 30 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 97%, and the dew point is near 48 degrees. There is patchy fog south. Winds are from the south at 8 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light rain. Winds are from the east at 8 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to rain. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 50 degrees at Shelbyville. The lowest temperature is CLOUDY degrees at Warsaw and Kokomo.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), LSI Heat Index, Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For WAYNE County,IN

340 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

   HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY  

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central 
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

 DAY ONE  This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook


7-Day Forecast For WAYNE County, IN
Issued at 611 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2023


HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY

TONIGHT
Showers. Warmer with lows in the lower 40s. Temperatures rising into the lower 50s after midnight. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 100 percent.

THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy. Showers in the morning. Windy and mild with Highs in the upper 50s. Temperatures falling into the mid 40s in the afternoon. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph, increasing to 60 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

THURSDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph in the evening.

FRIDAY
Mostly cloudy. Much cooler with highs around 40. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds around 10 mph.

SATURDAY
Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s.

SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s.

MONDAY
Partly cloudy. Highs around 50.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

TUESDAY
Partly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Rain likely. Mild with lows in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 60 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.

12-48 Hr ETA Surface, 12-48 Hr ETA 500mb/Sfc, 24 Hr. Comparsion, TWC Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip
NGM 60 Hr Forecast Meteograms: South Bend , Fort Wayne , Lafayette , Indianapolis , Evansville , Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2


Medium & Long Range Outlook For Indiana
                              INDIANA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   FEB 14-18    FEB 16-22    JUN       JUN-AUG                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Total Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day, 120-Day

Almanac Information
Wednesday February 08, 2023 the 39th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -14.740000
Distance 0.999724 AU
Rise 07:45 EST Set 18:14 EST
Transit Meridian 12:59 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:18 EST Ends 18:41 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

Yesterday's Highs , Lows
Sunrise/Sunset/Moonrise/Moonset Computation (USN)

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
FEBRUARY 8TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1835...
A severe cold wave gripped the southeastern U.S. The mercury dipped to 8
above at Jacksonville FL, and to zero at Savannah GA. Orange trees were
killed to the roots. (David Ludlum)
...1936...
The temperature at Denver CO plunged to a record 30 degrees below zero.
(David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
A powerful storm produced blizzard conditions in the Great Lakes Region.
Winds gusted to 86 mph at Janesville WI and Cleveland OH received 12 inches
of snow. North winds of 50 to 70 mph raised the water level of southern
Lake Michigan two feet, and produced waves 12 to 18 feet high, causing
seven million dollars damage along the Chicago area shoreline. It was the
most damage caused by shoreline flooding and erosion in the history of the
city of Chicago. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky