418 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
   FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING  

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

 DAY ONE  Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Very limited.
    Area...Northeast Oklahoma, west of Highway 75.
    Onset...Late tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing and again late tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Late tonight, but a more significant threat
            develops Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK  Limited.
AREA  Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET  Ongoing and again late tonight.

DISCUSSION  
Scattered thunderstorms will continue this morning across 
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A few marginally severe
hail producing storms will be possible across northeast Oklahoma 
through early afternoon.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to move into eastern 
Oklahoma from the west late tonight. A few of these storms could 
be strong to severe with damaging winds and a very limited 
tornado threat, mainly west of Highway 75. 

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT  
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  Severe Thunderstorm  High Wind and Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY  No Hazards.
TUESDAY and Wednesday  Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION  
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may ongoing across portions 
of eastern Oklahoma Friday morning as a strong upper low lifts 
into the Central Plains. The severe threat will continue as storms 
move across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
during the day Friday. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threats, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. 

There is a slight chance that an isolated supercell could develop
across portions of northeast Oklahoma late Friday afternoon or 
evening. With a very unstable air-mas in place, all modes of 
severe weather would be possible. 

Another round of severe weather is expected Saturday and especially
into Saturday night. All modes of severe weather will again be 
possible including a few tornadoes, torrential rainfall and flash
flooding. The severe weather and flooding threat will likely continue
on Sunday.

Limited thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT  
Continue to closely monitor the latest forecast concerning the severe
weather and flood potential through this weekend. Specific severe
weather threats and timing will continue to be refined over the 
next several days.

A more significant flood threat could develop Saturday night into
Sunday morning across northeast Oklahoma.  

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For CARROLL County, Arkansas
336 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

TODAY
A chance of thunderstorms. Showers, cooler with highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

TONIGHT
Cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Near steady temperature in the upper 50s. Temperature rising to around 60 after midnight. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

FRIDAY
Showers. Occasional thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Breezy and not as cool with highs in the lower 70s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

FRIDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Breezy with lows in the mid 60s. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SATURDAY
Partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy with highs around 80. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Windy with lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

SUNDAY
Showers and occasional thunderstorms. Windy with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 80 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.

MONDAY
Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s.

MONDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. A 20 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.

TUESDAY
Sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows around 60. Chance of rain 20 percent.

WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 20 percent.

12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

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Medium & Long Range Outlook For Arkansas

                             ARKANSAS                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                APR 30-MAY 4  MAY 2-MAY 8    JUN       JUN-AUG                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above                                            
 Precipitation:      Below       Normal                                            

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy

5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

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Almanac Information

Thursday April 25, 2024 the 116th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination 13.690000
Distance 0.999718 AU
Rise 07:24 EDT Set 20:50 EDT
Transit Meridian 14:06 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 06:58 EDT Ends 21:16 EDT

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy

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Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

APRIL 25TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1875...
New York City received three inches of snow, the latest measurable snow of
record for that location. (David Ludlum)
...1898...
The temperature at Volcano Springs CA hit 118 degrees to establish a U.S.
record for the month of April. (The Weather Channel)
...1910...
Chicago IL was blanketed with 2.5 inches of snow, and a total of 6.5 inches
between the 22nd and the 26th. It was the latest significant snow of record
for the city. (The Weather Channel)
...1920...
Atlanta GA received 1.5 inches of snow, and experienced their latest freeze
of record with a morning low of 32 degrees. The high of just 39 degrees was
only their second daily high colder than 40 degrees in April. (The Weather
Channel)


Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky