A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Skies ranged from partly cloudy east to overcast west across
central Alabama early this afternoon. Temperatures ranged from the
low 80's far southeast to the lower 70's in the southwest across
our forecast area. Surface winds were generally out of the
southeast between 10 and 20 mph with breezy conditions at times.
Aloft... water vapor imagery continues to depict a sharp trough
moving into southwest Missouri with satellite derived winds near
jet level continuing to indicate winds between 30 and 60 knots
across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Visible satellite imagery shows thickening cloud cover across our
west and southwest counties while radar imagery shows rain with
some thunderstorm activity affecting portions of Sumter, Marengo,
Greene and Hale Counties. This activity is expected to continue
and move further northeast this afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the west.
A synoptic-scale cold front extended from Southeast Missouri
through eastern Arkansas and into northwest Louisiana while a pre-
frontal trough extended from far eastern Arkansas nearly parallel
to the Interstate 55 corridor south into northeast Louisiana. A
maritime-influenced warm front was analyzed along the immediate
Mississippi coastline and extended northeast into southwest
Alabama, generally encompassing the coastal counties, and analyzed
further east into the western Florida panhandle.
Vigorous convection continues to persist across southeast
Mississippi and into southwest Alabama, particularly in the
vicinity and to the south of the warm front. The warm front is
expected to slowly lift northward this afternoon and evening ahead
of the approaching cold front. How far north this boundary
advances will determine the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Vertical wind profiles along with ample dynamical support aloft
favors organized thunderstorm activity along with severe storm
potential, however, weak lapse rates in the mid to upper levels
remains a limiting factor. Modified 12Z BMX sounding continues to
yield meager low level instability and various model-derived point
soundings across our central and southern counties continues to
depict maximum low-level instability values near 1000 J/kg roughly
near and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor with lower values
to the north.
Based upon latest trends, highest solar insolation along with best
thermal advection is occurring across our southeast counties
where surface temperatures are in the low 80's and are expected to
reach into the mid 80's this afternoon. Dew point values are
gradually increasing across our forecast area with higher values
in the upper 60's generally along and south of the Interstate 85
and U.S. Highway 80 corridors. Expect dew points to rise into the
lower 70's in these areas later this afternoon and into the early
Overall, potential for severe weather remains low across our
forecast area with the best potential for a strong to locally
severe storm being across our southern counties this afternoon and
evening with strong winds being the primary risk. If enough low
level instability materializes, updrafts could become strong
enough to support a conditional tornado risk.
Previous short-term discussion:Today and Tonight.
Models have come into a better alignment for the frontal passage
through tonight, so confidence is quite high that the widespread
rainfall will occur, thus have gone with 100 PoP across the area.
Best chances during the daytime hours will be west of I-65, with
all areas seeing rain tonight. On a whole looking at 1.5 to 2.5
inches of rain with the higher totals in the east this evening as
the large swath of rain will increase in size this afternoon into
tonight as it swings east. Do not think that this would be a
widespread flash flooding event, as some of these totals will
occur over a 6 to 9 hour window. There could be some localized
rises in normal trouble spots, but feeling is that nuisance
flooding is the only concern. As for instability, it does not look
great, especially with the southeasterly flow ahead of the front,
barely swinging southerly just ahead. A few stronger storms
definitely could occur with wind being the main concern, but
widespread severe weather is not anticipated based on the models.
SPC only has Central Alabama in the general thunderstorm outlook
with a marginal concern just to our southwest. As we get through
the morning, there could be some adjustment based on mesoscale
features, but feel as though this is a good starting point at this
time. A mid morning meso analysis will be done based on the new
models and upper air support to see if any changes are needed for
Monday through Sunday.
Models are in better agreement with faster progression of the
upper trough on Monday. Rain should come to an end before noon,
and a mild afternoon is expected with some breaks in the clouds.
An upstream shortwave will reinforce the cold advection regime on
Tuesday into Wednesday with afternoon temperatures in the upper
50s to lower 60s in the North on Wednesday.
A transition to warmer conditions is expected on Thursday and
Friday as southerly flow develops in response to a large trough
forming in the western CONUS. Model spread is quite large on the
timing of the next front sometime in the Friday night through
Sunday timeframe. Our forecast leans more toward the slower and
more consistent ECMWF with the highest rain chances centered on
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For PIKE County
200 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
DOTHAN MOSUNNY 84 66 54 SE9 30.11F
OZARK MOSUNNY 85 67 53 E9 30.07F
TROY CLOUDY 80 68 66 E7 30.09F
EUFAULA PTSUNNY 85 67 54 SE9 30.08F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 200pm CDT, Sunday October 22, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 77 degrees north, near 77 degrees central, and near 68 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and thunderstorms south. In the north, relative humidity is near 66%, and the dew point is near 65 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 66%, and the dew point is near 65 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 67 degrees. There is patchy fog south. Winds are from the southeast at 14 mph with gusts at 21 mph north, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the southeast at 12 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the north at 9 mph south, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to thunderstorms. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 85 degrees at Ozark. The lowest temperature is 68 degrees at Mobile.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For PIKE County, AL
418 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Monday through Saturday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For PIKE County, Alabama
202 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers early in the
afternoon, then slight chance of showers late in the afternoon.
Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
rain 40 percent.
TONIGHT Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 70. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near
MONDAY Cloudy with showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
in the morning, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers
in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph
shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain
MONDAY NIGHT Cooler. Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT Colder. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Clear. Lows in the lower 40s.
THURSDAY Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.
THURSDAY NIGHT Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.
FRIDAY Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s.
FRIDAY NIGHT Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s.
SATURDAY Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
OCT 27-OCT 31 OCT 29-NOV 4 NOV NOV-JAN
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Below Below Normal Above
Precipitation: Above Below Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Sunday October 22, 2017 the 295th Day of Year
Distance 0.999722 AU
Rise 07:59 EDT Set 19:05 EDT
Transit Meridian 13:32 EDT
Civil Twilight Begins 07:35 EDT Ends 19:30 EDT
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
The temperature soared to 104 degrees at San Diego CA. Southern California
was in the midst of a late October heat wave that year. Los Angeles had ten
consecutive days with afternoon highs reaching 100 degrees. (David Ludlum)
(The Weather Channel)
A guest on the top floor of a hotel in Seattle WA was seriously injured
while talking on the phone when lightning struck. Several persons are
killed each year when the electrical charge from a lightning bolt travels
via telephone wiring. (The Weather Channel)
Yakutat AK surpassed their previous all-time yearly precipitation total of
190 inches. Monthly records were set in June with 17 inches, in September
with 70 inches, and in October with more than 40 inches. (Sandra and TI
Richard Sanders - 1987)
Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S., most of them in the southeast
states, reported record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 30
degrees at Athens GA, 28 degrees at Birmingham AL, and 23 degrees at Pinson
AL, were the coldest of record for so early in the season. (The National
Showers produced heavy rain in southern California, with amounts ranging up
to five inches at Blue Jay. Flash flooding resulted in two deaths, ten
injuries, and more than a million dollars damage. (The National Weather
Summary) (Storm Data)
A "nor'easter" swept across the coast of New England. Winds gusted to 75
mph, and large waves and high tides caused extensive shoreline flooding. A
heavy wet snow blanketed much of eastern New York State, with a foot of
snow reported in Lewis County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
A storm system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain to the
Northern and Central Pacific Coast Region, with snow in some of the
mountains of Oregon, and wind gusts to 60 mph along the Oregon coast. Six
cities in Florida reported record low temp-eratures for the date, including
Tallahassee with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky