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Mobile County, AL Weather and Climate Synopsis

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US Weekly Rainfall Departure



US Weekly Temperature Departure
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.


.SHORT TERM...

Late Evening update...made some more smooths to hourly and low
temperatures. Still expect that before sunrise the western half
actually sees temperatures increase a bit as clouds move in. Also,
slightly increased rain chances near the state line. It appears
that any precipitation that falls will remain liquid temps aloft
are warming.

Evening update...Although surface high pressure was drifting 
eastward, southerly flow has not kicked up yet and sounding 
indicates very dry boundary layer conditions. Additionally, the 
higher cloudiness is not that thick at this time. Therefore, 
expect temperatures to drop like a rock in the few hours after 
sunset. Went ahead and lowered hourly trends and low temperatures 
overnight. The overall trend will remain as clouds will increase 
late tonight with rain starting early Sunday west. The 
temperatures will probably rise across the western two thirds 
after midnight with the east remaining cool.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
Increasing confidence in the forecast overnight and tomorrow as 
the relatively weak shortwave ejects into the mean flow. Moisture 
recovery looks substantial enough aided by the enhanced LLJ that 
most, if not all of the area should at least see some measurable 
precip by tomorrow night. Raised PoPs slightly to include most
areas into categorical, leaving the southwest out for now as the 
moisture axis rotates to a more east-west orientation and is a bit
slow to transition southward during the day tomorrow. 

17/KLAWS

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Saturday.

Sunday:

The cutoff low currently over northwest Mexico will eject
northeastward across Texas today as a negatively tilted shortwave
trough. Showers and elevated thunderstorms will blossom across
Texas later today and tonight as the shortwave intercepts Gulf
moisture and a developing low-level jet. This will occur north of
a warm front along the Texas Gulf Coast where a weak surface low
will move northeastward. This large complex of showers and a few
thunderstorms will push eastward tonight and be located over
Mississippi early Sunday morning in association with a 40-50 kt
LLJ. Models are in good agreement in bringing this activity into 
the western counties Sunday morning but in a weakened state as it 
encounters a stable air mass over Alabama. The shortwave will lift
quickly northeast away from the area into the Ohio Valley by
midday. This will result in continued weakening/decrease in
coverage with eastward extent, but moist isentropic lift in the
weakening low level jet will maintain shower chances through the
day. Models differ on how far east this activity will make it, and
will indicate decreasing chances further east. Some drier air
aloft will work in from the west behind this system, resulting in
decreased rain chances in the northwest during the afternoon. 
With very little in the way of MUCAPE will not mention thunder 
during this period, and rainfall amounts will be on the lighter 
side. Rain falling into the initially dry air mass at the surface 
will result in cool temperatures being in the 40s as the rain is 
falling, and have continued a lowering trend in high temperatures.
This rain will also slow the progress of a warm front trying to 
lift northward from the coast.

Sunday night through Monday night:

Low confidence forecast for rain chances during this period with
model disagreement continuing. Southwest to west-southwest flow
with potential weak waves will remain in place aloft between 
another cutoff low over the Desert Southwest and a strong 
subtropical ridge near Cuba and the Bahamas. Models differ
regarding how much drier air moves in aloft behind the departing
shortwave and how quickly moisture lifts back into the area. A
precipitation-reinforced front will also be located over the area.
The ECMWF continues to be the driest model during this period,
with more pronounced anti-cyclonic flow aloft due to a stronger
subtropical ridge, and the Canadian has also trended much drier.
The NAM and GFS continue to have a wetter solution. PoPs have
generally trended downward especially across the north during this
period. For Sunday night, will indicate slightly higher PoPs after
midnight versus Sunday evening, with CAMs looking drier at the
tail end of the run at 0z Sunday. The European ensemble is wetter
than the deterministic ECMWF across the southeast after midnight 
Sunday night and Monday morning, so will keep some likely PoPs in.
Overall QPF has trended downward, and the flooding concern looks 
to at least be delayed beyond this period. All models are looking 
fairly dry for Monday evening before ramping up rain chances 
either after midnight Monday night or Tuesday morning. 
Temperatures will be dependent on the position of the frontal 
boundary, which now looks to be further south. Enough elevated 
instability will be present for the potential for isolated thunder
but any surface-based instability will probably stay south of the
forecast area. 

Tuesday/Wednesday:

Models have all trended slower with the ejection of the next
southern stream cutoff out of the Desert Southwest, and now
indicate it moving across the area as a compact shortwave trough
on Wednesday. Increasing moisture ahead of this system will ramp
up rain chances beginning Tuesday. The lingering west-to-east
oriented frontal boundary looks to serve as the potential for
training activity with locally heavy rainfall possible due to an
unseasonably moist air-mass. Models differ on the placement of the
front with the GFS giving it an extra push south from a northern
stream shortwave. Have trended more towards the ECMWF solution
which is in agreement with its ensemble mean on a frontal 
position across North Alabama. This places much of the forecast 
area in the warm sector as the shortwave passes with the ECMWF 
indicating a surface low tracking just to the northwest of the 
area. This would be of concern for a potential threat of 
supercells and isolated tornadoes as the ECMWF indicates 65 
dewpoints with a 50 kt LLJ, 500-750 J/kg of CAPE, and 60 kts of 
0-6 km shear. However, all models have been struggling with run to
run consistency issues lately and the GFS keeps the front mainly 
south of the area. Will hold off on mentioning anything in the HWO
at this time until model agreement and consistency improves.

Thursday through Saturday:

Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday with westerly flow
behind the Wednesday system. Another trough moves into the western
CONUS towards the end of the week as the complicated split flow
pattern continues. This results in another cold frontal passage on
Friday. Sufficient moisture return for appreciable instability to
develop ahead of this front in the wake of the previous system is
uncertain. Cold air will be lurking behind this front with
southwest flow aloft continuing. A threat of wintry precipitation
may develop somewhere across the southern CONUS towards Saturday,
but it's too early to say where. Ensembles favor this threat
remaining northwest of the forecast area, and will keep
precipitation all liquid in the forecast at this time but continue
to monitor.

32/Davis


Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary

Current Surface Map, [2nd Source TWC]

Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For MOBILE County

SWR not available
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1200am CST, Sunday December 17, 2017

Across Alabama...temperatures are near 32 degrees north, near 38 degrees central, and near 53 degrees south. Current sky conditions are partly cloudy north, partly cloudy central, and clear south. In the north, relative humidity is near 88%, and the dew point is near 29 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 73%, and the dew point is near 30 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 61%, and the dew point is near 40 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 3 mph north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 3 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 9 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 53 degrees at Mobile. The lowest temperature is 29 degrees at Gadsden.


Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.

U.S. Radar Map, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For MOBILE County
Hazardous report currently not available
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

Current FORECAST not available 12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
                              ALABAMA                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   DEC 22-26    DEC 24-30    DEC       DEC-FEB                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Below      Below                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Almanac Information

Sunday December 17, 2017 the 351th Day of Year

---------------------------------------------------
SUN
Declination -23.380000
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:47 EST Set 17:43 EST
Transit Meridian 12:44 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:20 EST Ends 18:09 EST

Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy


Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today

DECEMBER 17TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1884...
A three week blockade of snow began at Portland OR. A record December total
of 34 inches was received. (David Ludlum)
...1924...
A severe icestorm struck central Illinois. It coated the ground with nearly
two inches of glaze at Springfield. The storm caused 21 million dollars
damage along with much hardship. Ice was on the trees until the 4th of
January, and electricity was not restored until January 10th. (David
Ludlum)
...1929...
An icestorm in western New York State resulted in much damage and hardship.
A Buffalo report stated, "one was kept awake by the breaking limbs, which
snapped off with a report much louder than a rifle shot." (17th-18th) (The
Weather Channel)
...1987...
A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy rain and heavy snow to parts
of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Charleston NV was
blanketed with 12 inches of snow. Lake Havasu City AZ was drenched with
2.26 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Squalls brought locally heavy snow to the southeastern shores of Lake
Michigan. Totals in Michigan ranged up to 14 inches at Harvey. Totals in
Ohio ranged up to 16 inches at Chardon. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1989...
Twenty-one cities from Kentucky to Pennsylvania reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Columbus OH with a reading of 12
degrees below zero. Heavy snow continued in the Colorado Rockies. Vail
received 65 inches of snow between the 14th and the 18th of December.
Steamboat Springs was buried under 74 inches, and reported a total of 108
inches of snow between the 10th and the 18th of the month. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky