A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
Late Evening update...made some more smooths to hourly and low
temperatures. Still expect that before sunrise the western half
actually sees temperatures increase a bit as clouds move in. Also,
slightly increased rain chances near the state line. It appears
that any precipitation that falls will remain liquid temps aloft
Evening update...Although surface high pressure was drifting
eastward, southerly flow has not kicked up yet and sounding
indicates very dry boundary layer conditions. Additionally, the
higher cloudiness is not that thick at this time. Therefore,
expect temperatures to drop like a rock in the few hours after
sunset. Went ahead and lowered hourly trends and low temperatures
overnight. The overall trend will remain as clouds will increase
late tonight with rain starting early Sunday west. The
temperatures will probably rise across the western two thirds
after midnight with the east remaining cool.
Previous short-term discussion:
Increasing confidence in the forecast overnight and tomorrow as
the relatively weak shortwave ejects into the mean flow. Moisture
recovery looks substantial enough aided by the enhanced LLJ that
most, if not all of the area should at least see some measurable
precip by tomorrow night. Raised PoPs slightly to include most
areas into categorical, leaving the southwest out for now as the
moisture axis rotates to a more east-west orientation and is a bit
slow to transition southward during the day tomorrow.
Sunday through Saturday.
The cutoff low currently over northwest Mexico will eject
northeastward across Texas today as a negatively tilted shortwave
trough. Showers and elevated thunderstorms will blossom across
Texas later today and tonight as the shortwave intercepts Gulf
moisture and a developing low-level jet. This will occur north of
a warm front along the Texas Gulf Coast where a weak surface low
will move northeastward. This large complex of showers and a few
thunderstorms will push eastward tonight and be located over
Mississippi early Sunday morning in association with a 40-50 kt
LLJ. Models are in good agreement in bringing this activity into
the western counties Sunday morning but in a weakened state as it
encounters a stable air mass over Alabama. The shortwave will lift
quickly northeast away from the area into the Ohio Valley by
midday. This will result in continued weakening/decrease in
coverage with eastward extent, but moist isentropic lift in the
weakening low level jet will maintain shower chances through the
day. Models differ on how far east this activity will make it, and
will indicate decreasing chances further east. Some drier air
aloft will work in from the west behind this system, resulting in
decreased rain chances in the northwest during the afternoon.
With very little in the way of MUCAPE will not mention thunder
during this period, and rainfall amounts will be on the lighter
side. Rain falling into the initially dry air mass at the surface
will result in cool temperatures being in the 40s as the rain is
falling, and have continued a lowering trend in high temperatures.
This rain will also slow the progress of a warm front trying to
lift northward from the coast.
Sunday night through Monday night:
Low confidence forecast for rain chances during this period with
model disagreement continuing. Southwest to west-southwest flow
with potential weak waves will remain in place aloft between
another cutoff low over the Desert Southwest and a strong
subtropical ridge near Cuba and the Bahamas. Models differ
regarding how much drier air moves in aloft behind the departing
shortwave and how quickly moisture lifts back into the area. A
precipitation-reinforced front will also be located over the area.
The ECMWF continues to be the driest model during this period,
with more pronounced anti-cyclonic flow aloft due to a stronger
subtropical ridge, and the Canadian has also trended much drier.
The NAM and GFS continue to have a wetter solution. PoPs have
generally trended downward especially across the north during this
period. For Sunday night, will indicate slightly higher PoPs after
midnight versus Sunday evening, with CAMs looking drier at the
tail end of the run at 0z Sunday. The European ensemble is wetter
than the deterministic ECMWF across the southeast after midnight
Sunday night and Monday morning, so will keep some likely PoPs in.
Overall QPF has trended downward, and the flooding concern looks
to at least be delayed beyond this period. All models are looking
fairly dry for Monday evening before ramping up rain chances
either after midnight Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will be dependent on the position of the frontal
boundary, which now looks to be further south. Enough elevated
instability will be present for the potential for isolated thunder
but any surface-based instability will probably stay south of the
Models have all trended slower with the ejection of the next
southern stream cutoff out of the Desert Southwest, and now
indicate it moving across the area as a compact shortwave trough
on Wednesday. Increasing moisture ahead of this system will ramp
up rain chances beginning Tuesday. The lingering west-to-east
oriented frontal boundary looks to serve as the potential for
training activity with locally heavy rainfall possible due to an
unseasonably moist air-mass. Models differ on the placement of the
front with the GFS giving it an extra push south from a northern
stream shortwave. Have trended more towards the ECMWF solution
which is in agreement with its ensemble mean on a frontal
position across North Alabama. This places much of the forecast
area in the warm sector as the shortwave passes with the ECMWF
indicating a surface low tracking just to the northwest of the
area. This would be of concern for a potential threat of
supercells and isolated tornadoes as the ECMWF indicates 65
dewpoints with a 50 kt LLJ, 500-750 J/kg of CAPE, and 60 kts of
0-6 km shear. However, all models have been struggling with run to
run consistency issues lately and the GFS keeps the front mainly
south of the area. Will hold off on mentioning anything in the HWO
at this time until model agreement and consistency improves.
Thursday through Saturday:
Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday with westerly flow
behind the Wednesday system. Another trough moves into the western
CONUS towards the end of the week as the complicated split flow
pattern continues. This results in another cold frontal passage on
Friday. Sufficient moisture return for appreciable instability to
develop ahead of this front in the wake of the previous system is
uncertain. Cold air will be lurking behind this front with
southwest flow aloft continuing. A threat of wintry precipitation
may develop somewhere across the southern CONUS towards Saturday,
but it's too early to say where. Ensembles favor this threat
remaining northwest of the forecast area, and will keep
precipitation all liquid in the forecast at this time but continue
Alabama Forecast Discussion (NWS)
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map,
[2nd Source TWC]
Click here for UKAWC Point Agricultural, Lawn & Garden Forecast/Outlook in case of corrupt tables.
Regional Hourly Observations For CLAY County
1200 AM CST SUN DEC 17 2017
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ANNISTON CLOUDY 33 29 85 NE3 30.27F
6HR MIN TEMP: 32; 6HR MAX TEMP: 41;
ALEXANDER CITY CLOUDY 35 34 96 CALM 30.25F
6HR MIN TEMP: 32; 6HR MAX TEMP: 40;
AUBURN CLOUDY 40 30 67 SE3 30.27F
6HR MIN TEMP: 39; 6HR MAX TEMP: 45;
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Alabama
Based on observations at 1100pm CST, Saturday December 16, 2017
Across Alabama...temperatures are near 34 degrees north, near 38 degrees central, and near 51 degrees south. Current sky conditions are cloudy north, cloudy central, and partly cloudy south. In the north, relative humidity is near 88%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 76%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. In the south, relative humidity is near 60%, and the dew point is near 38 degrees. Winds are calm north, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 5 mph south, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category north, no stress category central, and no stress category south. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 51 degrees at Mobile. The lowest temperature is 29 degrees at Gadsden.
Current NOWCAST not available:
Nowcasts are not issued routinely during fair weather. Only when
precipitation or other significant weather is occuring in this county will these
forecasts be issued. Currently, there is no short term forecast in effect.
U.S. Radar Map,
All NWS Radars (In near-real time),
Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI),
Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For CLAY County, AL
514 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017
DAY ONE Outlook through Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.
NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook
7-Day Forecast For CLAY County, Alabama
1202 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017
REST OF THE NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Near steady temperature in
the lower 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
SUNDAY Cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain
showers likely in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
SUNDAY NIGHT Warmer, cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the
evening, then rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms after midnight. Near steady temperature in the
lower 50s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
MONDAY Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
MONDAY NIGHT Cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers in the
evening, then chance of rain showers after midnight. Near steady
temperature in the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 5 mph. Chance
of rain 30 percent.
TUESDAY Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
TUESDAY NIGHT Rain showers likely and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain 70 percent.
WEDNESDAY Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 80 percent.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming
partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of rain showers. Lows in the
THURSDAY Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.
THURSDAY NIGHT Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows around 50.
FRIDAY Cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
FRIDAY NIGHT Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Lows in the mid 40s.
SATURDAY Cooler. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain.
Highs in the lower 50s.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps,
TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast,
Day 1 Precip,
Day 2 Precip,
Days 1-5 Precip,
Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1,
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Alabama
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
DEC 22-26 DEC 24-30 DEC DEC-FEB
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Normal Normal Above Above
Precipitation: Above Above Below Below
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast,
6 to 10 Day ,
8 to 14 Day ,
Sunday December 17, 2017 the 351th Day of Year
Distance 0.999725 AU
Rise 07:47 EST Set 17:43 EST
Transit Meridian 12:44 EST
Civil Twilight Begins 07:20 EST Ends 18:09 EST
Calculations made for central point in the state.
Time in ET -- and will vary due to location and
elevation -- Priddy
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
A three week blockade of snow began at Portland OR. A record December total
of 34 inches was received. (David Ludlum)
A severe icestorm struck central Illinois. It coated the ground with nearly
two inches of glaze at Springfield. The storm caused 21 million dollars
damage along with much hardship. Ice was on the trees until the 4th of
January, and electricity was not restored until January 10th. (David
An icestorm in western New York State resulted in much damage and hardship.
A Buffalo report stated, "one was kept awake by the breaking limbs, which
snapped off with a report much louder than a rifle shot." (17th-18th) (The
A storm in the southwestern U.S. brought heavy rain and heavy snow to parts
of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico. Charleston NV was
blanketed with 12 inches of snow. Lake Havasu City AZ was drenched with
2.26 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Squalls brought locally heavy snow to the southeastern shores of Lake
Michigan. Totals in Michigan ranged up to 14 inches at Harvey. Totals in
Ohio ranged up to 16 inches at Chardon. (The National Weather Summary)
Twenty-one cities from Kentucky to Pennsylvania reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Columbus OH with a reading of 12
degrees below zero. Heavy snow continued in the Colorado Rockies. Vail
received 65 inches of snow between the 14th and the 18th of December.
Steamboat Springs was buried under 74 inches, and reported a total of 108
inches of snow between the 10th and the 18th of the month. (The National
Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky